Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:00:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8ab5…bd7a
other · 14 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3 · open −$9
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Open positions7
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage3d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%
Chart Positions 7 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -13%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $2 +$6 +377%
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? Jun 13 $1 $0 -15%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n Jun 12 $3 −$3 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 11 $2 $0 -17%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 69% −$9
world 22% −$1
politics 6% −$2
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 1h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $6 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $1 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 SELL Yes 56¢ $8 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 BUY Yes 11¢ $2 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 BUY Yes $1 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? BUY Yes $1 13h
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? BUY Yes $3 24h
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 24h
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 24h
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Will MrBeast say "Prize" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2d
Will Warsh say "Trump" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Warsh say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $2 2d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.4% 14% 14% -23.3%
≤30d 7 +4.5% -5.4% 14% 14% -23.3%
≤90d 7 +4.5% -5.4% 14% 14% -23.3%
all 7 +4.5% -5.4% 14% 14% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 14% -23.3%
10% -14.5% 14% -30.6%
15% -22.7% 14% -37.3%
20% -30.3% 14% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.35 · official $6.35 (match) · 23 history records