Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:18:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ab6…c297 other 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$82 (-0%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 248L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$17
14 days−$31
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 25% −$21
politics 8% −$8
economics 7% −$5
culture 6% −$10
world 4% −$3
crypto 3% −$4
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 74 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 173 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 258 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 248
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)258 / 259
History coverage142d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 258 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 99¢ 99¢ $55 $55 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $143 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $202 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $152 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $223 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $251 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $414 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $812 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $219 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $164 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $311 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $199 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $249 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $152 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $330 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $265 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $372 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $315 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $147 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $331 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $337 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $590 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $622 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $168 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 12 $534 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $469 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $292 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $579 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 10 $226 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $433 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $686 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $126 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $390 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $232 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 0m
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $55 2h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $55 4h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $55 8h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 10h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 17h
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $56 18h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $56 20h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $56 22h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7 26h
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $7 27h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 33h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 35h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 36h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 37h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 41h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 42h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 44h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 46h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.23 · official $55.23 (match) · 1488 history records