Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:49:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8ab9…d821 sports 65 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,274 (-5%) realized −$3,554 · open −$720
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate45%29W / 35L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,202per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$1,161est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$4,655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,876
7 days+$733
14 days+$8,383
30 days−$4,027
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$4,848
other 0% +$102
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.4% -1.0% 58% 42% -5.7%
≤30d 64 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -14.6%
≤90d 64 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -14.6%
all 64 -4.8% -13.9% 45% 41% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 41% -14.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 41% -22.7%
15% -29.7% 36% -30.2%
20% -36.6% 30% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,515) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -21% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$850 vs −$819 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$4,655
Realized−$3,554
Unrealized−$720
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses29 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,161
Open positions1
Markets (closed)64 / 65
History coverage23d
Avg bet$1,202
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group A AlQadsiah Esports 55¢ 48¢ $5,375 $4,655 −$720 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $1,836 $0 -0%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6,728 +$3,022 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$102 +101%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $1,697 +$727 +43%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs Jun 18 $1,629 +$24 +2%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $177 +$177 +100%
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $314 −$5 -2%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Ser Jun 14 $120 −$5 -4%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $12 $0 +1%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 14 $1,535 +$420 +27%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $3,960 −$3,728 -94%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 11 $191 +$112 +59%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs G2 Ares (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group S Jun 10 $385 +$786 +204%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 10 $2,013 +$488 +24%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $390 +$178 +46%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $1,517 −$1,498 -99%
Counter-Strike: HEROIC Academy vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Jun 08 $216 −$12 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $1,065 −$1,025 -96%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $3,067 +$1,306 +43%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $7,531 +$5,024 +67%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $629 −$6 -1%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $2,679 +$2,021 +75%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $288 +$177 +61%
Counter-Strike: Johnny Speeds vs 1WIN (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Play Jun 06 $719 +$1,527 +212%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 06 $2,159 −$1,878 -87%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $134 −$134 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Ilbirs eSports (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 06 $159 −$6 -4%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $500 −$402 -80%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $1,515 +$995 +66%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: Team Yandex vs Verso Time (BO5) - MLBB Conti Jun 05 $16 −$2 -11%
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Playoffs Jun 05 $899 −$899 -100%
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Jun 04 $1,392 +$1,008 +72%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playo Jun 04 $1,487 −$1,445 -97%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $1,109 −$1,109 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Execration (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia C Jun 04 $35 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Grou Jun 03 $838 +$1,533 +183%
Valorant: T1 Academy vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regula Jun 03 $111 +$74 +67%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Playoff Jun 03 $2,553 −$2,553 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 Academy vs ReThink (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Pla Jun 03 $2,480 −$2,480 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $2,679 +$2,021 +75%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $88 −$3 -3%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Donstu Esports vs Fire Flux Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advan Jun 01 $253 −$250 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $819 −$819 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - BC Game Masters Eu May 30 $1,101 −$1,080 -98%
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 29 $1,002 +$646 +64%
Call of Duty: Los Angeles Thieves vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty L May 29 $524 −$513 -98%
Call of Duty: Toronto KOI vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Dut May 29 $1,035 −$1,027 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode SELL Walczaki 57¢ $1,836 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $495 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $285 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $34 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $503 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL AlQadsiah Esports 46¢ $4 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 55¢ $2,676 1h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 55¢ $1,389 2h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY AlQadsiah Esports 55¢ $1,389 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $20 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $6 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $34 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $3 2h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode BUY Walczaki 57¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,655.41 · official $4,655.41 (match) · 429 history records