Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:16:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8abc…c234 sports 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 200d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$193 (+7%) realized +$206 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%25W / 21L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$262
other 9% −$104
tech 7% +$37
politics 1% −$17
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 46 -3.1% -12.3% 54% 50% -3.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 50% -3.4%
10% -20.7% 43% -12.6%
15% -28.3% 35% -21.1%
20% -35.4% 30% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$37 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

200d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized+$206
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses25 / 21
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage200d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovic Camila Osorio 25¢ 18¢ $50 $37 −$13 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner Dec 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? Dec 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? Dec 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $1 $0 +26%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 10 $200 +$37 +19%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 08 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Dec 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 Dec 08 $15 −$15 -100%
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 Dec 08 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Dec 07 $759 +$145 +19%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Dec 07 $117 +$246 +210%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $9 +$6 +66%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner Dec 05 $50 +$25 +50%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $70 +$29 +42%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) Dec 05 $100 −$80 -80%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Dec 05 $39 +$31 +78%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 05 $78 +$61 +78%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 05 $120 +$32 +26%
Trail Blazers vs. Raptors Dec 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs SLT - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 1 Winner Dec 05 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs B8 (BO1) Dec 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Valorant: DRX vs Rex Regum Qeon - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $60 +$40 +67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Dec 04 $36 +$24 +66%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Imperial (BO1) Dec 04 $120 +$26 +22%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 04 $52 −$52 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO1) Dec 04 $26 −$26 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 04 $95 +$61 +64%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 04 $100 +$25 +25%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs G2 (BO1) Dec 04 $55 +$31 +56%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Team Falcons (BO1) Dec 04 $23 +$72 +316%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs 3DMAX (BO3) Dec 04 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs G2 (BO1) Dec 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs TheMongolz (BO1) Dec 04 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO1) Dec 04 $21 +$2 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 202 Dec 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election? Dec 04 $20 −$17 -83%
Will it Snow in Seattle this December? Dec 04 $12 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Dec 03 $1 +$2 +186%
Solana Up or Down - December 3, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Dec 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Newcastle vs. Tottenham: O/U 1.5 Dec 02 $12 +$28 +233%
Barcelona vs. Atletico Madrid: O/U 2.5 Dec 02 $9 +$3 +36%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner Dec 02 $27 +$21 +78%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Dec 02 $20 +$23 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Camila Osorio vs Ajla Tomljanovi BUY Camila Osorio 25¢ $51 2h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner BUY MOUZ 72¢ $51 189d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 191d
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 92¢ $2 191d
Will another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 73¢ $1 191d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 191d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-12-10? BUY Yes 48¢ $60 191d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 53¢ $120 191d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? BUY Yes 44¢ $100 193d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $508 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 78¢ $396 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Team Falcons 77¢ $396 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 70¢ $363 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $363 194d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 32¢ $117 194d
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? SELL Yes 43¢ $117 194d
Lille OSC vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 196d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner SELL 3DMAX 100¢ $15 196d
FSV Mainz 05 vs. Borussia Mönchengladbach: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $75 196d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 2 Winner BUY 3DMAX 60¢ $9 196d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner SELL PARIVISION 100¢ $75 196d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) BUY MOUZ 38¢ $20 196d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) BUY MOUZ 39¢ $20 196d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX - Map 1 Winner BUY PARIVISION 67¢ $50 196d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner SELL Passion UA 100¢ $99 196d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 48¢ $20 196d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid (BO3) SELL Liquid 14¢ $20 196d
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Liquid - Map 2 Winner BUY Passion UA 70¢ $70 196d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $70 196d
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 56¢ $39 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.00 · official $43.00 · 111 history records