Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T20:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8abf…6d69 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 604d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,705 (-13%) realized −$1,701 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate59%13W / 9L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$534per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,148now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$267
7 days+$267
14 days+$267
30 days+$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$1,140
other 25% −$698
world 10% +$31
crypto 10% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 67% +2.5%
≤30d 3 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 67% +2.5%
≤90d 3 -9.1% -17.7% 67% 67% +2.5%
all 22 -25.0% -32.1% 59% 36% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 36% -22.9%
10% -38.6% 23% -30.3%
15% -44.5% 5% -37.0%
20% -50.0% 0% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% too few recent
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$889) neutral
Persistence
early -28% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$315 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

604d coverage
Net worth$1,148
Realized−$1,701
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses13 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage604d
Avg bet$534
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? No 90¢ 90¢ $952 $946 −$5 (-1%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? No 70¢ 70¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $1,003 +$120 +12%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $101 −$63 -62%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 27 $907 +$209 +23%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? Jan 05 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Jan 05 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Jan 05 $1,134 −$836 -74%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? Jan 03 $976 +$4 +0%
Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Dec 26 $751 +$224 +30%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Dec 26 $613 +$138 +22%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? Dec 03 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? Nov 28 $599 +$14 +2%
Will Netherlands beat Hungary? Nov 17 $437 +$162 +37%
Will Brentford win on 2024-11-09? Nov 09 $393 +$44 +11%
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? Nov 09 $366 +$28 +8%
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? Nov 07 $357 +$8 +2%
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-03? Nov 04 $164 −$164 -100%
Will Man City win on 2024-11-02? Nov 04 $256 −$256 -100%
Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? Nov 04 $307 +$50 +16%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $152 −$152 -100%
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? Nov 02 $359 +$112 +31%
Ethereum above $2,600 on November 1? Nov 01 $889 −$79 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY No 90¢ $955 1h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 70¢ $202 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL No 25¢ $38 16h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY No 89¢ $1,003 18h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 64¢ $101 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? SELL No 92¢ $1,116 18h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $907 26h
Will Liverpool win on 2025-01-05? BUY Yes 75¢ $152 538d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $146 539d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? SELL No 11¢ $146 539d
Will Brighton vs. Arsenal end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $988 539d
Will Crystal Palace vs. Chelsea end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $980 539d
Will a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024? BUY No 100¢ $976 543d
Will Wolves vs. Manchester United end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $751 548d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? SELL No 98¢ $751 548d
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Tottenham end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $613 548d
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-01? BUY Yes 100¢ $612 573d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? SELL Yes 99¢ $613 576d
Will Max Verstappen win the 2024 F1 season? BUY Yes 97¢ $599 581d
Will Netherlands beat Hungary? BUY Yes 73¢ $437 588d
Will Brentford win on 2024-11-09? BUY Yes 90¢ $393 595d
Iran strike on Israel by Nov 8? BUY No 93¢ $366 597d
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? SELL Yes 99¢ $366 597d
Will RB Salzburg beat Feyenoord? BUY Yes 97¢ $357 597d
Will Man Utd vs. Chelsea end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $307 601d
Will Chelsea win on 2024-11-03? BUY Yes 41¢ $164 602d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $471 602d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 94¢ $67 602d
Will Newcastle win on 2024-11-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $292 602d
Will Man Utd win on 2024-11-03? BUY Yes 38¢ $152 602d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,147.85 · official $1,147.85 (match) · 51 history records