Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:45:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8abf…db1f crypto 998 markets active 9h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-5%) realized −$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%617W / 381L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day12.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$35
14 days+$9
30 days−$93
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$316
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -7.8% -16.6% 62% 62% -15.8%
≤30d 590 -3.7% -12.9% 66% 65% -12.4%
≤90d 998 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 57% -14.7%
all 998 -6.5% -15.4% 62% 57% -14.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 57% -14.7%
10% -23.5% 52% -22.9%
15% -30.9% 40% -30.3%
20% -37.7% 23% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses617 / 381
Open positions0
Markets (closed)998 / 998
History coverage88d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day12.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 998 Trades
no open positions (267 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1846 history records