Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T00:17:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8ac8…986f sports 53 markets active 9d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,752 (-12%) realized −$16,336 · open −$2,416
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%21W / 21L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,047per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$968est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$22,158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$23,454
30 days−$13,820
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$353
other 31% −$10,883
world 3% −$5,000
crypto 1% −$1,763
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 41 -13.5% -21.7% 51% 51% -19.5%
≤90d 42 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -20.6%
all 42 -15.6% -23.6% 50% 50% -20.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.6% 50% -20.6%
10% ← realistic here -30.9% 40% -28.2%
15% -37.6% 40% -35.1%
20% -43.7% 29% -41.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,734 vs −$2,476 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$22,158
Realized−$16,336
Unrealized−$2,416
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses21 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$968
Open positions6
Markets (closed)42 / 53
History coverage36d
Avg bet$3,047
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $7,728 $9,668 +$1,940 (+25%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 11¢ $7,334 $4,870 −$2,464 (-34%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $4,228 $3,770 −$458 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $2,800 $1,978 −$822 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $2,184 $1,617 −$567 (-26%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $300 $254 −$46 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $981 −$964 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $4,054 −$4,000 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $103 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $3,347 +$2,878 +86%
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,524 +$1,737 +114%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,365 +67%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $46 −$45 -99%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $2,025 −$2,000 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2,021 +$1,056 +52%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$534 +105%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4,018 +$686 +17%
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,025 +$1,388 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $909 +$454 +50%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $3,000 +$1,940 +65%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $7,054 −$7,000 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,069 −$5,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $5,069 +$4,166 +82%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10,102 −$10,000 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2,033 −$2,000 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $103 −$100 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3,027 +$1,280 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,050 +$2,443 +48%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,075 −$5,000 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5,028 +$1,092 +22%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $3,030 +$1,417 +47%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10,061 −$10,000 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,028 +$1,745 +86%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,021 +$2,423 +237%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $1,007 −$1,000 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $506 −$500 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $2,016 −$2,000 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $3,025 +$1,119 +37%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5,060 +$3,229 +64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $13,066 +$2,623 +20%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $3,031 +$1,539 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $6,997 +$1,293 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $505 −$168 -33%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 15? May 14 $1,764 −$1,763 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 42¢ $981 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $1,013 9d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $3,041 9d
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $103 10d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND W BUY 37¢ $3,057 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND BUY 21¢ $1,024 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on BUY 48¢ $2,031 10d
England vs. Croatia: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,524 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $46 11d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 53¢ $3,347 11d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,025 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $513 11d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Portugal vs. DR Congo BUY 59¢ $2,025 11d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 65¢ $2,021 11d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 12d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4,704 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3,413 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 85¢ $4,018 12d
Iraq vs. Norway: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $2,025 12d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $3,000 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $909 12d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 74¢ $7,054 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $5,069 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $9,235 13d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $10,102 13d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2,033 13d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 13d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $103 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,157.52 · official $22,157.52 (match) · 161 history records