Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ac9…92d3 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 228d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$154 (+0%) realized +$620 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%59W / 118L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$271per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$208est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,527now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,157
7 days+$1,848
14 days+$1,848
30 days+$1,848
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$330
sports 36% +$966
other 18% +$109
world 3% −$786
finance 1% −$700
politics 1% −$201
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 33% +9.6%
≤30d 48 -4.3% -13.4% 33% 33% +9.6%
≤90d 118 -7.4% -16.2% 33% 33% -17.6%
all 177 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 33% -9.2%
10% -17.8% 33% -17.9%
15% -25.8% 33% -25.8%
20% -33.0% 33% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +19% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$454 vs −$231 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

228d coverage
Net worth$1,527
Realized+$620
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses59 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$208
Open positions9
Markets (closed)177 / 186
History coverage228d
Avg bet$271
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 177 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 52¢ $500 $499 −$1 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $200 $238 +$38 (+19%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 54¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 Over 15¢ 14¢ $200 $187 −$13 (-7%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $120 $132 +$12 (+10%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $58 $36 −$22 (-38%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 12¢ 1¢ $419 $23 −$396 (-95%)
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $97 $3 −$94 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 102 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $631 −$620 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $205 +$691 +338%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$502 +124%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $508 +$603 +119%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $103 −$12 -12%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 −$8 -8%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 17 $205 −$17 -8%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$29 -28%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$38 -37%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $207 −$55 -27%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $610 −$601 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$23 +110%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $102 +$243 +238%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $102 +$332 +325%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 17 $315 +$303 +96%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Austria (-3.5) Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$255 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$320 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $203 +$155 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 17 $616 +$1,296 +210%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $508 +$543 +107%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $224 +$403 +180%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 14 $355 −$347 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $409 −$400 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $509 −$470 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $293 +$175 +60%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 11 $205 −$200 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 11 $630 +$496 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $320 +$288 +90%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $21 −$20 -97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $528 −$280 -53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Mar 29 $200 +$174 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 29 $1,829 −$1,806 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 15¢ $205 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $113 1h
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 BUY Over 16¢ $103 2h
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) BUY Ghana 8¢ $103 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $519 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $204 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $507 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 13¢ $90 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 50¢ $284 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 28¢ $94 3h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) SELL Colombia 23¢ $187 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 14¢ $103 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $102 4h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $304 4h
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) BUY Colombia 24¢ $205 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 5h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $508 5h
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 3¢ $103 5h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $74 5h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $65 5h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $152 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 8h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 54¢ $102 10h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $507 20h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 23¢ $102 20h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $20 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $407 21h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 22¢ $205 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,527.42 · official $1,528.60 (match) · 512 history records