Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:02:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8acb…080b crypto 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$160 (-16%) realized −$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate68%21W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day66.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -24.5% -31.7% 68% 23% -24.0%
≤30d 31 -24.5% -31.7% 68% 23% -24.0%
≤90d 31 -24.5% -31.7% 68% 23% -24.0%
all 31 -24.5% -31.7% 68% 23% -24.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover66.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 23% -24.0%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 10% -31.3%
15% -44.2% 3% -37.9%
20% -49.6% 0% -44.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$24 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses21 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage1d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day66.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 28 $36 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 28 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 28 $59 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 28 $64 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 28 $31 +$14 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 28 $35 −$34 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$45 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 28 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 28 $60 +$4 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 28 $3 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $11 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $42 +$8 +19%
Solana Up or Down - June 27, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 28 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 27 $56 +$7 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 27 $3 $0 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $36 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $64 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $49 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $6 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $21 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $3 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $29 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 11h
XRP Up or Down - June 28, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $10 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $9 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $8 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $31 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records