Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:45:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8acd…8ee2 crypto 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$258 (+36%) realized +$258 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%8W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +41.2% +27.7% 33% 33% -9.6%
≤30d 24 +41.2% +27.7% 33% 33% -9.6%
≤90d 24 +41.2% +27.7% 33% 33% -9.6%
all 24 +41.2% +27.7% 33% 33% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +27.7% 33% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +15.5% 33% -18.3%
15% +4.3% 33% -26.2%
20% -5.9% 33% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +41% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$34 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$258
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses8 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$112 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$35 +343%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$102 +388%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$70 +264%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$32 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$152 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$13 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$23 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $27 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records