Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:04:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8A 0x8ad1…bfef other 61 markets active 3h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate48%29W / 31L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 58% +$5
politics 13% $0
other 13% $0
sports 9% −$1
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% +$3
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.5% -8.2% 67% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 6% -8.5%
≤90d 16 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 6% -8.5%
all 60 +3.0% -6.8% 48% 7% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 7% -8.7%
10% -15.7% 7% -17.5%
15% -23.9% 5% -25.4%
20% -31.3% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses29 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $44 +$2 +4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $49 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 16 $106 +$2 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $55 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $19 −$1 -4%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 10 $47 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $41 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $8 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 +$2 +67%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Dec 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 -3%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 03 $10 $0 +2%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in May? May 20 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30? May 19 $3 +$3 +89%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? May 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 17 $8 $0 -3%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $1 $0 -8%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 14 $10 $0 -0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin May 6-12? May 14 $1 $0 +29%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? May 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iceland finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 5? May 13 $1 $0 -37%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 11 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 11 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,250,000-1,500,000 people? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Starmer out before July? May 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the Western Conference? May 10 $2 +$3 +135%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves be the 2025 NBA Finals matchup? May 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 08 $11 $0 +1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 08 $12 $0 +0%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? May 07 $11 $0 -2%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 07 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $12 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $41 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $9 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 42h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 42h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $46 46h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 45¢ $44 46h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $40 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $32 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $54 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $15 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $38 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $54 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 10d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $54 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $52 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 11d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.49 · official $50.57 (match) · 210 history records