Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ad2…9116 other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$52 (-1%) realized −$51 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%28W / 58L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$151now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$13
14 days−$19
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 39% −$10
other 34% −$49
world 24% −$1
tech 2% +$8
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -3.9% -13.0% 40% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 12 -8.2% -16.9% 33% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 27 +69.1% +53.0% 37% 4% -10.3%
all 86 +22.3% +10.6% 33% 2% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.6% 2% -10.2%
10% +0.1% 2% -18.8%
15% -9.6% 2% -26.6%
20% -18.5% 1% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +43% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$151
Realized−$51
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses28 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage465d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 93¢ 92¢ $152 $151 −$1 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 21 $61 −$17 -27%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $168 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $48 +$4 +8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $7 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $209 −$6 -3%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $61 +$2 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $169 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $62 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 -7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -73%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $156 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $47 −$4 -9%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $148 −$39 -26%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $162 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $188 +$5 +2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 17 $40 −$3 -7%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,064 −$2 -0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $80 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 13 $968 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 13 $895 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 12 $968 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 11 $93 $0 +0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $967 +$1 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $967 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Jul 14 $4 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Jul 13 $8 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by July 31? Jul 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Jul 13 $17 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jul 12 $16 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jul 12 $2 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 12 $8 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 11 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jul 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 10 $19 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $152 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $44 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 22¢ $61 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $168 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $168 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $18 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $18 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $29 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $48 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $34 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $43 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $148 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $155 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $25 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 7d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $17 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $46 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $17 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $27 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $55 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $55 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.81 · official $150.78 (match) · 361 history records