Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8ad3…b35e crypto 1586 markets active 1h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$152 (+1%) realized +$160 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate87%1380W / 204L
Drawdown97%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day41.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$217now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$474
7 days−$390
14 days−$399
30 days−$264
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$46
other 15% +$53
finance 14% +$121
tech 1% +$80
world 0% +$26
sports 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -81.7% -83.5% 12% 2% -27.5%
≤30d 92 -55.1% -59.4% 35% 12% -14.2%
≤90d 1584 -0.2% -9.7% 87% 53% -8.5%
all 1584 -0.2% -9.7% 87% 53% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 53% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 6% -17.3%
15% -26.3% 1% -25.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$9 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$217
Realized+$160
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1380 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1584 / 1586
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day41.4
Drawdown97%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1584 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 90¢ 99¢ $198 $217 +$19 (+10%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Down 94¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? Up 93¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Up 95¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $199 +$21 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$8 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$7 -75%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on May 19? Jun 17 $20 −$9 -43%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on May 20? Jun 17 $24 −$10 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 90¢ $199 1h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 90¢ $199 1h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 41¢ $4 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $10 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 33¢ $1 2h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 93¢ $6 4h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 92¢ $4 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Up 47¢ $95 4h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Up 95¢ $200 5h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 92¢ $198 27h
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 92¢ $10 28h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 93¢ $200 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 92¢ $198 5d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $8 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $91 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $91 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 91¢ $10 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 94¢ $198 6d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 91¢ $11 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 91¢ $5 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 90¢ $184 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 91¢ $109 7d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 90¢ $90 7d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 91¢ $198 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? SELL Up 43¢ $89 8d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Up 92¢ $198 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 94¢ $198 8d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 90¢ $99 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 92¢ $35 9d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 91¢ $64 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $217.09 · official $216.98 (match) · 3500 history records