Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T21:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8ad3…e651
weather · 431 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$367 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$205 · open −$162
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,108
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses242 / 129
Open positions60
Markets (closed)371 / 431
History coverage14d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day112.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 60 History 371 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$164
7 days+$164
14 days−$38
30 days−$205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Yes 24¢ 97¢ $20 $82 +$62 (+312%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? No 88¢ 98¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 13? No 85¢ 95¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 85¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 13? No 87¢ 96¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 85¢ 88¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? No 80¢ 84¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 13? No 86¢ 88¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 85¢ 84¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 13? No 89¢ 84¢ $40 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 13? No 89¢ 83¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? No 86¢ 80¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? No 89¢ 90¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 13? No 68¢ 45¢ $40 $27 −$13 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 12? No 72¢ 80¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 89¢ 96¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? No 89¢ 95¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? No 74¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Yes 33¢ 26¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? No 89¢ 57¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-35%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? No 62¢ 80¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$4 +18%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$10 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 12 $20 +$6 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$6 +19%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$9 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 +$2 +23%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 +$12 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$8 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$5 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$5 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$15 +142%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$7 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$5 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$23 +219%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$3 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$4 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 +$52 +167%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $30 +$4 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$6 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $21 +$62 +297%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$7 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $20 +$9 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on June 11? Jun 11 $20 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$367
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $14 23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 23m
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $11 23m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $13 25m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $13 25m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $10 36m
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 89¢ $10 37m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 45m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $2 45m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $9 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $7 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $6 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 45m
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $13 45m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 73¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June SELL No 99¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $12 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +9.5% -0.9% 82% 76% +0.2%
≤30d 371 -3.9% -13.0% 65% 54% -11.9%
≤90d 371 -3.9% -13.0% 65% 54% -11.9%
all 371 -3.9% -13.0% 65% 54% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover112.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.0% 54% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -21.4% 17% -20.3%
15% -29.0% 9% -28.0%
20% -35.9% 6% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,107.97 · official $1,107.97 (match) · 1599 history records