Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8ad5…ccde sports 172 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$194 (-2%) realized −$293 · open +$99
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate34%52W / 101L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day42.9pace
Fees−$142est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 153 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 33% -11.0%
≤30d 153 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 33% -11.0%
≤90d 153 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 33% -11.0%
all 153 -5.6% -14.6% 34% 33% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.6% 33% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.8% 33% -19.5%
15% -30.2% 30% -27.3%
20% -37.1% 30% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$42 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$889
Realized−$293
Unrealized+$99
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses52 / 101
Est. fees paid−$142
Open positions19
Markets (closed)153 / 172
History coverage4d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day42.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rincon Daniel Rincon 50¢ 50¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh Pakistan 67¢ 66¢ $118 $115 −$3 (-2%)
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Cassone Murphy Cassone 36¢ 100¢ $37 $104 +$67 (+178%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys Toby Samuel 46¢ 100¢ $40 $87 +$47 (+117%)
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Alexander Zverev 55¢ 60¢ $67 $72 +$5 (+8%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tagger Lilli Tagger 42¢ 44¢ $67 $70 +$2 (+4%)
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Francisco Cerundolo 39¢ 40¢ $41 $42 +$1 (+1%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus Sinja Kraus 19¢ 50¢ $16 $42 +$26 (+161%)
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 38¢ 38¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu Jan Choinski 29¢ 28¢ $32 $32 −$1 (-2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Alastair Gray 34¢ 20¢ $45 $27 −$18 (-40%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Hamish Stewart 34¢ 34¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 23¢ 24¢ $20 $21 +$0 (+2%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Giles Hussey 21¢ 22¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Anastasiia Sobolieva 22¢ 22¢ $18 $18 −$0 (-2%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Taylor Townsend Martina Trevisan 10¢ 8¢ $21 $18 −$3 (-15%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Emily Appleton 21¢ 21¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+0%)
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Viktorija Golubic 32¢ 22¢ $23 $16 −$7 (-30%)
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm Mariella Thamm 20¢ 8¢ $28 $11 −$17 (-60%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs Marie Mettraux Jun 20 $50 +$126 +250%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $222 +$52 +23%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $45 −$44 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Martina Colmegna Jun 20 $26 −$25 -98%
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Daria Khomutsianskaya Jun 20 $69 −$68 -99%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt Jun 19 $284 −$279 -98%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $67 +$107 +158%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $11 +$55 +510%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $45 +$51 +114%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 19 $43 −$42 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $91 +$52 +57%
Figueira Da Foz: Martyna Kubka vs Yeon-Woo Ku Jun 19 $61 +$50 +83%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $40 +$71 +180%
ITF Mungia-Laukariz: Michiel De Krom vs Ryan Nijboer Jun 19 $65 +$63 +97%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Brandon Nakashima Jun 19 $31 +$71 +226%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva Jun 19 $24 −$24 -98%
ITF Milano: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Fausto Tabacco Jun 19 $98 −$97 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche Jun 19 $30 −$29 -98%
ITF Klosters: Dominic Stephan Stricker vs Kai Wehnelt Jun 19 $18 +$63 +344%
ITF Ystad: Lucie Petruzelova vs Valentina Steiner Jun 19 $17 +$60 +344%
ITF Ystad: Lea Nilsson vs Linea Bajraliu Jun 19 $46 −$45 -98%
ITF Gyula: Mate Valkusz vs Pietro Fellin Jun 19 $84 −$16 -19%
Nottingham Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Emma Navarro Jun 19 $31 −$31 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Madison Keys Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
ITF Tauste: Celia Cervino Ruiz vs Ru Xi Wu Jun 19 $129 −$127 -99%
ITF Kayseri: Rethin Pranav Senthil Kumar vs Kerem Yilmaz Jun 19 $45 −$45 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Jun 19 $44 +$242 +550%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $26 −$26 -98%
ITF Luque: Antonia Rivera vs Josefina Estevez Jun 19 $11 −$11 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Gavin Young vs Maximus Dussault Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
ITF Mohammedia: Luna Vujovic vs Elina Nepliy Jun 19 $38 −$37 -98%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $19 −$18 -98%
ITF Lourinha: Joao Domingues vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 19 $75 −$73 -98%
ITF Klosters: Julia Stusek vs Mara Guth Jun 19 $72 −$71 -99%
ITF Irvine: Karl Kazuma Lee vs Rudy Quan Jun 19 $149 +$97 +65%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Sebastian Ofner Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
ITF Irvine: Bianca Molnar vs Monika Ekstrand Jun 18 $69 −$67 -98%
ITF Luque: Marjorie Souza vs Leyla Fiorella Britez Risso Jun 18 $88 +$65 +74%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 18 $27 −$26 -98%
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $23 +$63 +276%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $116 +$89 +76%
Poznan: Michele Ribecai vs Facundo Acosta Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Nottingham 2: Christopher O'Connell vs Benjamin Bonzi Jun 18 $30 +$63 +206%
Nottingham 2: Shintaro Mochizuki vs Remy Bertola Jun 18 $56 +$67 +119%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $64 +$93 +146%
Royan: Cosme de Ravel vs Raphael Perot Jun 18 $79 +$94 +119%
Poznan: Facundo Acosta vs Florian Broska Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Yibing Wu BUY Jan Choinski 29¢ $33 12m
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco BUY Daniel Rincon 50¢ $125 1h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag BUY Lilli Tagger 42¢ $68 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Renata Zarazua vs Mariella Thamm BUY Mariella Thamm 20¢ $28 2h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Martina Trevisan vs Taylor Townsend BUY Martina Trevisan 10¢ $22 3h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol BUY Federico Bondioli 19¢ $45 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray BUY Alastair Gray 34¢ $45 3h
ITF Mohammedia: Nina Vargova vs Martina Colmegna BUY Martina Colmegna 20¢ $26 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart BUY Hamish Stewart 34¢ $24 3h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Toby Samuel vs Quentin Halys BUY Toby Samuel 46¢ $41 3h
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 22¢ $19 4h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Zverev 55¢ $67 5h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 38¢ $37 5h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Filippo Romano vs Murphy Casson BUY Murphy Cassone 36¢ $38 6h
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic BUY Viktorija Golubic 32¢ $24 8h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 39¢ $42 9h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Paula Badosa vs Sinja Kraus BUY Sinja Kraus 19¢ $16 9h
ITF Zhengzhou: Jiaqi Wang vs Daria Khomutsianskaya BUY Daria Khomutsianskaya 59¢ $69 10h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton BUY Emily Appleton 21¢ $17 12h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito BUY Diane Parry 81¢ $222 12h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Marcos Giron vs Charles Broom BUY Charles Broom 23¢ $21 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey BUY Giles Hussey 21¢ $19 13h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Amelie Justine Hejtmanek vs Marie Mettraux BUY Amelie Justine Hejtmanek 28¢ $50 14h
Asuncion 2: Guido Justo vs Nick Hardt BUY Guido Justo 38¢ $284 14h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Bangladesh BUY Pakistan 67¢ $119 15h
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 35¢ $43 19h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 16¢ $11 24h
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Alina Charaeva BUY Susan Bandecchi 29¢ $24 24h
ITF Milano: Gianmarco Ferrari vs Fausto Tabacco BUY Gianmarco Ferrari 62¢ $98 24h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Luca Van Assche BUY Daniel Rincon 29¢ $30 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $889.27 · official $889.29 (match) · 226 history records