Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ad6…eed6 crypto 612 markets active 21h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$151 (-3%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%175W / 437L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$272
14 days−$284
30 days−$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$357
sports 7% −$45
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 210 -17.4% -25.3% 20% 16% -47.0%
≤30d 222 -21.9% -29.3% 18% 15% -47.9%
≤90d 612 -7.2% -16.0% 29% 26% -17.9%
all 612 -7.2% -16.0% 29% 26% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 26% -17.9%
10% -24.1% 23% -25.8%
15% -31.4% 21% -32.9%
20% -38.1% 19% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$4 · ×1.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses175 / 437
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)612 / 612
History coverage76d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 612 Trades
no open positions (216 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $4 −$2 -40%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -15%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 -5%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -9%
England leading at halftime? Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -7%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $2 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 -3%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Jun 12 $2 $0 -4%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 12 $4 $0 -7%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$11 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$9 -94%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-3.5) Jun 12 $4 +$2 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Barcelona vs. La Laguna Tenerife Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Draw at halftime? Jun 11 $2 +$2 +70%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +23%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $4 $0 +12%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Tucuman: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $5 −$2 -48%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $5 +$3 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$9 +437%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -24%
LoL: Misa Esports vs UCAM Esports Club (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 21h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Draw at halftime? SELL No 54¢ $2 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 19¢ $1 5d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 10¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 SELL Under 24¢ $2 5d
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) SELL Türkiye 13¢ $2 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $2 5d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron SELL Ben Shelton 43¢ $2 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? SELL No 71¢ $2 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 10.5 SELL Under 63¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 49¢ $2 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 66¢ $2 5d
England leading at halftime? SELL No 58¢ $2 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Under 43¢ $2 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 30¢ $2 5d
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu SELL Sorana Cirstea 48¢ $2 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 61¢ $2 5d
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL No 76¢ $2 5d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 68¢ $2 5d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL South Africa 68¢ $2 5d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 5d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 44¢ $2 5d
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) SELL Spurs 30¢ $2 5d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL No 28¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 76¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1632 history records