Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:50:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ad6…34c6 sports 38 markets active 11d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (74 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$430 (+7%) realized +$430 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day74.3pace
Fees−$131est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$405
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (74 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 38 +38.9% +25.7% 39% 39% -3.5%
≤90d 38 +38.9% +25.7% 39% 39% -3.5%
all 38 +38.9% +25.7% 39% 39% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +25.7% 39% -3.5%
10% ← realistic here +13.7% 39% -12.8%
15% +2.7% 39% -21.2%
20% -7.4% 39% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 49% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$231 vs −$133 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$430
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Est. fees paid−$131
Open positions0
Markets (closed)38 / 38
History coverage2d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day74.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 38 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $235 +$258 +110%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $40 +$158 +395%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $487 −$485 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $145 −$145 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $533 −$50 -9%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $75 −$75 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $265 +$193 +73%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 −$108 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $116 +$167 +143%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $2 +$14 +567%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $490 +$510 +104%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $105 +$195 +186%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $111 −$111 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $264 −$264 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $303 −$303 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $469 −$469 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $956 +$1,168 +122%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $60 +$140 +233%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $15 +$85 +567%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 +$80 +400%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $56 −$56 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $108 −$108 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 16 $80 −$80 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $6 +$18 +300%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$31 +150%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $40 −$40 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $110 +$190 +173%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $150 +$250 +167%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $493 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $198 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 30¢ $90 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $17 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $120 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $124 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $2 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $4 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 39¢ $150 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 20¢ $19 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $4 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $8 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $1 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $1 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Under 10¢ $6 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $21 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $9 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $24 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $8 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $1 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $41 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $2 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $0 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $17 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $9 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $10 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $4 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 29¢ $4 11d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 47¢ $54 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 225 history records