Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ad7…6096 crypto 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$43 (-15%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate30%3W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 81% −$87
sports 19% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-52.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 0% -50.1%
≤30d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 0% -50.1%
≤90d 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 0% -50.1%
all 10 -47.3% -52.3% 30% 0% -50.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.3% 0% -50.1%
10% ← realistic here -56.9% 0% -54.9%
15% -61.1% 0% -59.2%
20% -64.9% 0% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 80% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$19 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses3 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $31 −$29 -94%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $23 −$17 -72%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $31 −$22 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $40 −$12 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 22 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $18 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $26 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $13 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 22 $21 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $31 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl SELL Misa Esports 8¢ $7 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 14¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 44¢ $10 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl BUY Misa Esports 31¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A SELL Lilmix 12¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A BUY Lilmix 43¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 46¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $18 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 5h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $17 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $11 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $10 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records