Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:54:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8A 0x8ada…aeba crypto 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$146 (-12%) realized +$54 · open −$200

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip

Net edge-51%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate36%8W / 14L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$51per market

Trades / day41.7pace

Fees−$14est.

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-42.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-36.1%	-42.2%	36%	27%	-55.0%
≤30d	22	-36.1%	-42.2%	36%	27%	-55.0%
≤90d	22	-36.1%	-42.2%	36%	27%	-55.0%
all	22	-36.1%	-42.2%	36%	27%	-55.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover41.7 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-42.2%	27%	-55.0%
10% ← realistic here	-47.8%	23%	-59.3%
15%	-52.8%	23%	-63.2%
20%	-57.4%	18%	-66.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 37% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -36% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -33% → late -39% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer

Win / loss size

+$7 vs −$39 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.1 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$54

Unrealized−$200

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses8 / 14

Est. fees paid−$14

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage2d

Avg bet$51

Trades / day41.7

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	64¢	0¢	$200	$0	−$200 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	Jun 15	$334	−$331	-99%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 14	$20	+$20	+97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$257	−$137	-54%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$71	+$12	+16%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$51	−$3	-7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Jun 13	$7	−$7	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Jun 13	$7	−$7	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Jun 13	$4	+$5	+119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Jun 13	$1	−$1	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 13	$5	−$5	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Jun 13	$6	−$6	-100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Jun 13	$20	+$8	+37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 13	$3	−$3	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 13	$1	+$1	+83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 13	$1	+$1	+57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Jun 13	$100	+$7	+7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Jun 13	$27	+$2	+6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major	Jun 13	$49	−$28	-58%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	68¢	$10	1h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	1h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	69¢	$10	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	64¢	$101	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	65¢	$101	1h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	69¢	$1	1h
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde?	BUY Yes	69¢	$303	1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL TheMongolz	100¢	$40	27h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	36¢	$5	28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	56¢	$5	28h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY TheMongolz	58¢	$10	29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Spirit	34¢	$79	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	43¢	$10	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	23¢	$10	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	56¢	$10	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	55¢	$10	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	48¢	$24	44h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	58¢	$51	45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	SELL Under	75¢	$82	45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	71¢	$20	45h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	66¢	$10	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	61¢	$10	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	59¢	$30	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	SELL Spirit	17¢	$40	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	41¢	$10	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	42¢	$10	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	42¢	$10	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	42¢	$10	46h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	50¢	$47	46h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	BUY Spirit	68¢	$101	46h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 107 history records