Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:22:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8adc…ceaf crypto 1472 markets active 1h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,957 (-2%) realized −$1,958 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate60%882W / 583L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day23.8pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$50
7 days+$191
14 days+$138
30 days−$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$3,106
sports 10% −$279
tech 2% −$342
other 0% −$22
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +8.1% -2.2% 70% 67% +7.7%
≤30d 151 -0.1% -9.6% 61% 54% -15.0%
≤90d 1120 -0.2% -9.7% 60% 49% -12.6%
all 1465 -1.6% -10.9% 60% 49% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.9% 49% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 40% -20.9%
15% -27.2% 32% -28.6%
20% -34.4% 25% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$39 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized−$1,958
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses882 / 583
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions7
Markets (closed)1465 / 1472
History coverage106d ⚠
Avg bet$76
Trades / day23.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 1465 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Arizona Diamondbacks 72¢ 72¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 65¢ 64¢ $46 $46 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) New York Yankees 75¢ 73¢ $46 $45 −$1 (-3%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 48¢ 48¢ $45 $44 −$0 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 54¢ $37 $40 +$3 (+9%)
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Atlanta Braves 69¢ 72¢ $22 $23 +$1 (+4%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 56¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $63 +$18 +28%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $61 +$43 +70%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $81 −$81 -100%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 16 $69 +$38 +55%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $69 +$57 +83%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$3 +27%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$14 +40%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $35 +$15 +41%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $75 +$65 +86%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $38 −$38 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $36 +$7 +18%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $23 +$10 +42%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $23 +$22 +93%
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$25 +54%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 12 $22 +$7 +31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $44 +$19 +44%
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $54 +$35 +64%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $27 +$26 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $54 −$54 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $17 +$11 +64%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $10 +$7 +71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $49 +$5 +10%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-4.5) Jun 10 $38 +$11 +29%
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) Jun 10 $33 +$6 +17%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $17 +$16 +97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $15 +$1 +8%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $9 +$6 +70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $9 $0 +5%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$3 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 07 $5 $0 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $5 $0 +7%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 06 $4 +$1 +17%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 06 $3 +$1 +29%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12PM ET Jun 05 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +32%
Athletics vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 +13%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-4.5) Jun 04 $24 −$24 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-6.5) Jun 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $44 +$7 +15%
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 +$9 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 48¢ $45 1h
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 75¢ $46 2h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 65¢ $46 2h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 72¢ $46 2h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 78¢ $53 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 12¢ $10 11h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 75¢ $10 11h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $5 11h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 36¢ $10 12h
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 59¢ $30 23h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $61 23h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 58¢ $61 24h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ $5 32h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 64¢ $69 34h
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 78¢ $10 35h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $10 35h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Houston Astros 32¢ $10 35h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $69 2d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 71¢ $35 2d
Apple (AAPL) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 70¢ $35 2d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 53¢ $75 3d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 54¢ $38 4d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $38 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 84¢ $36 4d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 25¢ $5 4d
Tesla (TSLA) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 64¢ $46 5d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 70¢ $23 5d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 51¢ $23 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 69¢ $44 5d
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 69¢ $22 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.97 · official $247.97 (match) · 3500 history records