Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8adc…6b14 other 1429 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$4,063 (-7%) realized −$918 · open −$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate49%688W / 727L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$234est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$1,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days+$184
14 days+$435
30 days−$403
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$630
sports 32% +$355
politics 5% −$475
world 4% −$85
finance 1% −$131
crypto 0% −$5
economics 0% −$4
tech 0% −$10
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-20.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -13.6% -21.9% 44% 43% -6.5%
≤30d 394 -8.8% -17.5% 51% 50% -11.3%
≤90d 1415 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 46% -11.0%
all 1415 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 46% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.2% 46% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.9% 41% -19.5%
15% -34.8% 33% -27.3%
20% -41.2% 25% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$1,657
Realized−$918
Unrealized−$98
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses688 / 727
Est. fees paid−$234
Open positions32
Markets (closed)1415 / 1429
History coverage78d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 1415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $250 $251 +$1 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $200 $201 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 74¢ 72¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Portugal leading at halftime? Yes 59¢ 56¢ $150 $140 −$10 (-6%)
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 55¢ 50¢ $133 $122 −$11 (-8%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 38¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 71¢ 70¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 3.5 Over 14¢ 14¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+4%)
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score No 66¢ 66¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Over 60¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Ecuador leading at halftime? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-4%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Over 31¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 0¢ 42¢ $0 $15 +$15 (+0%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Azerbaijan be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grigor Dimitrov win the 2026 Australian Open? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Belgium be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estonia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cyprus be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Malta be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Serbia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Norway be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Georgia be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Austria be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Albania be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $28 +$13 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$23 +226%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $76 +$61 +80%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 +$26 +101%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $72 +$204 +285%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$14 +14%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 14 $26 −$15 -58%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $351 +$25 +7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 +$17 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $25 +$13 +51%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $35 +$24 +68%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$14 +57%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $226 +$57 +25%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $126 +$73 +58%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 14 $45 +$45 +98%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $50 +$23 +45%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -98%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 14 $66 −$65 -98%
Scott McTominay: 2+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Ché Adams: 1+ goals Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 −$44 -44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $10 −$5 -48%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Wilson Isidor: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $15 1m
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals BUY Yes 28¢ $5 17m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $25 19m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $41 28m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 28m
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $137 29m
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 29m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $275 29m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 100¢ $45 29m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 1h
Netherlands leading at halftime? SELL Yes 17¢ $10 2h
Netherlands leading at halftime? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 56¢ $25 2h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $376 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $33 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $38 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $60 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 4h
Germany leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $283 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $10 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 30¢ $10 5h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $19 5h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 5h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 63¢ $25 5h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 28¢ $26 5h
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 50¢ $25 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,656.70 · official $1,656.72 (match) · 3500 history records