Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:27:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
8A 0x8ae4…273e sports 593 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 65d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$7,042 (+4%) realized +$6,679 · open +$363
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate44%239W / 303L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$316per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$1,595est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$2,162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,496
7 days−$2,499
14 days−$2,039
30 days−$15,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$15,038
other 18% −$5,526
world 3% −$212
crypto 3% −$135
weather 0% −$104
tech 0% −$13
finance 0% −$8
politics 0% −$28
culture 0% −$42
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -50.9% -55.6% 29% 29% -21.7%
≤30d 191 -11.7% -20.1% 38% 24% -36.6%
≤90d 542 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 34% -5.4%
all 542 -5.8% -14.8% 44% 34% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.8% 34% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -14.5%
15% -30.4% 24% -22.8%
20% -37.2% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$287 vs −$202 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$2,162
Realized+$6,679
Unrealized+$363
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses239 / 303
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,595
Open positions238
Markets (closed)542 / 593
History coverage65d ⚠
Avg bet$316
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 238 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? No 43¢ 48¢ $1,343 $1,472 +$130 (+10%)
WTT - Women's Singles: Elizabeta Samara vs Xunyao Shi Shi 3¢ 50¢ $8 $125 +$118 (+1567%)
WTT - Women's Singles: Bernadette Szocs vs Nina Mittelham Szocs 3¢ 50¢ $8 $125 +$118 (+1567%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $19 $30 +$11 (+56%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 23¢ $2 $30 +$28 (+1277%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 21¢ $2 $27 +$25 (+1151%)
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 24¢ $1 $24 +$22 (+1475%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 19¢ $1 $19 +$19 (+2366%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-11%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $22 $15 −$7 (-31%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 11¢ $2 $14 +$12 (+545%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 10¢ $2 $13 +$11 (+515%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 13¢ $1 $13 +$12 (+1555%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-36%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 12¢ $1 $12 +$12 (+1478%)
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s US Open? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $1 $11 +$10 (+647%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-29%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+257%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $2 $8 +$6 (+257%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+209%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 6¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+647%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+143%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 52¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+4048%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+558%)
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? Yes 2¢ 5¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+143%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $100 −$100 -100%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $587 −$587 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $980 −$980 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $532 −$532 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $580 +$420 +72%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $430 +$570 +133%
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 27 $443 −$443 -100%
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $637 +$363 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $101 −$1 -1%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,162 +$838 +72%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,273 +$727 +57%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $173 −$173 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,263 −$1,263 -100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,490 +$510 +34%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $760 +$240 +32%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $327 −$327 -100%
Barcelona vs. Valencia Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $710 +$290 +41%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: McCartney Kessler vs Anhelina Kalinina Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,260 +$740 +59%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $760 −$760 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $353 −$353 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $873 +$127 +14%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,189 +$811 +68%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,067 −$1,067 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 +$1 +57%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iraq? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $114 −$114 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 22 $630 −$630 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $550 −$550 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,700 +$851 +50%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 20 $1 $0 +6%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $230 −$230 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $175 −$175 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 19 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $270 +$730 +270%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 47¢ $477 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 43¢ $44 1h
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
No one announced as next James Bond? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 42¢ $420 2h
WTT - Women's Singles: Bernadette Szocs vs Nina Mittelham BUY Szocs 3¢ $8 2h
WTT - Women's Singles: Elizabeta Samara vs Xunyao Shi BUY Shi 3¢ $8 2h
WTT - Women's Singles: Elizabeta Samara vs Xunyao Shi SELL Samara 97¢ $485 2h
WTT - Women's Singles: Elizabeta Samara vs Xunyao Shi BUY Samara 5¢ $25 2h
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 41¢ $410 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin BUY Andrey Rublev 65¢ $1 7h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $532 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $490 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $490 25h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 58¢ $580 25h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $587 26h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $100 27h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $35 27h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $295 27h
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 47h
Will Naomi Osaka win the 2026 Women’s US Open? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Cape Verde win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $200 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $100 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 2d
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $637 2d
Mallorca Championships: Nuno Borges vs Ethan Quinn BUY Nuno Borges 57¢ $1 2d
Will Frances Tiafoe be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,161.69 · official $2,161.58 (match) · 3500 history records