Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:11:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8ae5…4f22 sports 426 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 92d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,564 (+4%) realized +$26,564 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate76%324W / 102L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$1,621per market
Trades / day35.6pace
Fees−$1,855est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6,278
7 days+$1,684
14 days−$2,925
30 days+$4,300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$1,327
other 32% +$38,277
world 15% −$3,957
crypto 0% +$525
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +3.3% -6.5% 73% 73% -7.0%
≤30d 152 +5.5% -4.5% 74% 71% -7.7%
≤90d 414 +3.2% -6.6% 75% 70% -6.4%
all 426 +5.3% -4.8% 76% 70% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 70% -5.1%
10% -13.9% 43% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.2% 22% -22.5%
20% -29.8% 13% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,740) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$396 vs −$930 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$26,564
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses324 / 102
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$1,855
Open positions0
Markets (closed)426 / 426
History coverage92d ⚠
Avg bet$1,621
Trades / day35.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 426 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $105 +$195 +186%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $200 +$300 +150%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,280 +$717 +31%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) Jun 18 $3,077 +$443 +14%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $121 +$65 +54%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,740 +$258 +15%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $1,720 +$278 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,680 +$1,329 +36%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $690 +$96 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 +$90 +82%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $770 −$770 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,240 −$1,240 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,799 +$198 +11%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,723 −$1,723 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $99 +$231 +233%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,950 +$2,044 +52%
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,500 +$498 +33%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $670 +$329 +49%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,680 +$318 +19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $99 −$99 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,500 +$498 +33%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,660 +$338 +20%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3,980 +$1,015 +26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,680 +$318 +19%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $29 +$3 +11%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,606 +$412 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $390 +$109 +28%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $870 +$129 +15%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $1,026 +$178 +17%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $750 −$750 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $900 −$900 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,520 −$2,520 -100%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $61 −$61 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $1,619 −$1,610 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $375 +$125 +33%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $502 +$248 +49%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $1,607 +$395 +25%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $900 +$99 +11%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1,700 +$298 +18%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $375 +$124 +33%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $883 +$116 +13%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $617 +$382 +62%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $390 −$345 -88%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $281 +$38 +14%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $890 +$110 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $361 +$143 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) SELL Colombia 100¢ $500 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,997 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $18 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $23 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 55¢ $7 1h
Spread: Colombia (-3.5) SELL Uzbekistan 100¢ $3,520 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $186 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $67 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $15 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $11 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $32 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $11 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $64 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $7 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $65 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $70 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $6 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $0 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $92 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $3 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 35¢ $0 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 40¢ $200 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,998 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 87¢ $1,740 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $544 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records