Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:23:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae7…cc66 sports 52 markets active 5h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$392 (-24%) realized −$416 · open +$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%12W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$88now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$391
14 days−$391
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$187
other 30% −$180
crypto 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -5.9% -14.9% 26% 26% -32.4%
≤30d 47 -5.9% -14.9% 26% 26% -32.4%
≤90d 51 -13.3% -21.5% 24% 24% -33.3%
all 51 -13.3% -21.5% 24% 24% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 24% -33.3%
10% -29.1% 24% -39.7%
15% -35.9% 22% -45.5%
20% -42.2% 20% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$22 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$88
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$24
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses12 / 39
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)51 / 52
History coverage38d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 72¢ $64 $88 +$24 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $36 −$35 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -93%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $36 −$17 -48%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $45 +$57 +128%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 −$23 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $26 +$28 +105%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -11%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$51 +999%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +327%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 +$10 +194%
Exact Score: France 0 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $132 −$131 -99%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $27 −$26 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 15 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $66 +$40 +61%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -97%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 −$24 -77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $50 −$49 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $132 +$60 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $137 +$36 +27%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $22 +$17 +76%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $104 −$8 -7%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $43 +$43 +99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $6 +$37 +596%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$54 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $65 5h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $36 17h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 0¢ $0 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 16¢ $12 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 26¢ $20 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 9¢ $7 18h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 43¢ $45 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 19¢ $15 19h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 16¢ $10 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $15 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $23 34h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 34h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $26 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 40h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 40h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 23¢ $10 41h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 41h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 3¢ $5 42h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $5 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 42h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 91¢ $56 43h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 43h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 43h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 1¢ $0 43h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? SELL Yes 40¢ $15 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.14 · official $88.14 (match) · 91 history records