Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:30:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae8…de2e politics 35 markets active 3h ago coverage 307d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 28% −$1
other 23% $0
world 19% $0
sports 15% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 3% −$14
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 7 -0.0% -9.5% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 0% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 0% -11.8%
10% -20.4% 0% -20.2%
15% -28.1% 0% -27.9%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

307d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage307d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $25 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $26 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $27 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $26 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 15 $14 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 04 $15 −$14 -93%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 20 $13 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $2 $0 +2%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $13 $0 -1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 10 $3 $0 -16%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Sep 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31? Sep 02 $2 $0 +10%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 29 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Aug 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Aug 28 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 28 $2 $0 +0%
50% India tariff in effect by August 27? Aug 27 $14 $0 +2%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $4 $0 +1%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Aug 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $145 in August? Aug 23 $39 $0 -0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 22 $39 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $26 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 97¢ $25 38h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 97¢ $25 39h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $28 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $28 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $5 29d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $11 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 96¢ $14 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $26 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $27 30d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $27 30d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 31d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $27 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $8 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $18 31d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $26 31d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $1 202d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? SELL No 6¢ $0 202d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $13 216d
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? BUY No 87¢ $15 244d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? SELL No 99¢ $14 244d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 250d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 251d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $14 262d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $14 262d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $14 264d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $14 264d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 266d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $14 266d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.97 · official $25.97 (match) · 110 history records