Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T07:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8ae9…3135 other 245 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%12W / 232L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$236per market
Trades / day9.6pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$37
sports 22% −$17
politics 10% −$8
culture 8% −$9
economics 6% −$6
world 4% −$5
crypto 4% −$6
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 158 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
all 244 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses12 / 232
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage138d
Avg bet$236
Trades / day9.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 21 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $453 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $164 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $200 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $172 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $288 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $425 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $293 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $563 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $433 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $698 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $506 −$1 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $63 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $369 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $351 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $447 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $474 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $487 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $180 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $306 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $771 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $202 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $312 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $157 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $68 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $549 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $732 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $308 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 24h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $60 25h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 27h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $60 29h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 31h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 32h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $60 37h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $60 39h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $60 45h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $60 46h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $61 3d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 3d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 3d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.78 · official $59.78 (match) · 1392 history records