Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8A 0x8aea…892d crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,012 (+30%) realized +$1,007 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%36W / 31L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$711
7 days+$930
14 days+$912
30 days+$1,008
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$885
crypto 10% −$20
sports 10% +$112
tech 0% +$10
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +7.7% -2.5% 59% 59% +29.8%
≤30d 30 +10.8% +0.3% 60% 60% +28.7%
≤90d 67 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 54% +22.9%
all 67 +3.6% -6.3% 54% 54% +22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 54% +22.9%
10% -15.2% 54% +11.1%
15% -23.4% 49% +0.4%
20% -30.9% 34% -9.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +36% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$14 · ×2.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.29 per $1 lost it wins $3.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$570
Realized+$1,007
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses36 / 31
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions5
Markets (closed)67 / 72
History coverage35d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $250 $248 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $150 $148 −$2 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? No 3¢ 9¢ $5 $15 +$10 (+208%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $485 +$200 +41%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $404 +$221 +55%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $56 +$30 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $81 +$97 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$165 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 +$31 +307%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 +$121 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $172 +$82 +48%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 20 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$53 +105%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$11 +43%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$56 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 05 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 01 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 01 $5 +$5 +93%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $51 +$63 +124%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $30 +$25 +83%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $25 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20? May 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 25 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on May 21? May 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $15 +$33 +214%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $30 +$14 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 24 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? May 24 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 22 $5 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 22 $5 +$27 +512%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $153 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $182 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $192 23h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $107 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 40¢ $86 23h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $92 24h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 25h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $178 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 32h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $56 34h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 34h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $468 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $81 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $303 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $252 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $172 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $569.97 · official $569.97 (match) · 163 history records