Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af2…a93f world 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 295d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$5 (-0%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate25%15W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% −$4
politics 21% $0
other 13% +$1
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% +$1
tech 4% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 6% -10.0%
≤90d 16 -0.2% -9.7% 25% 6% -10.0%
all 60 +0.6% -9.0% 25% 5% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 5% -9.6%
10% -17.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -32.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

295d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses15 / 45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage295d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 24¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $37 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $46 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $130 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 +$4 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $40 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $43 −$7 -17%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $43 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $11 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $43 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $23 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? Sep 29 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Sep 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 26 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $8 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Sep 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will McLaren be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 22 $14 +$1 +5%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 22 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Belarus? Sep 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in September? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in September? Sep 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Sep 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 16 $1 $0 +16%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by September 30? Sep 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Sep 16 $3 $0 +17%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Sep 15 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $37 2h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $37 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $10 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 12h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 12h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $41 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $41 23h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $4 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $34 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $11 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $20 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $6 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $8 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $4 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $3 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $38 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $34 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $9 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 41¢ $13 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 34¢ $18 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.27 · official $0.00 (match) · 192 history records