Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8af4…3bb1
crypto · 163 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses84 / 75
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)159 / 163
History coverage85d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 4 History 159 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Japan military clash before 2027? No 87¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? No 86¢ 88¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 59¢ 34¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner Anyones Legend 23¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 17 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 17 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET May 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET May 17 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 17 $2 +$1 +58%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 17 $1 $0 +28%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winner May 17 $4 −$2 -47%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 23 $4 +$2 +46%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $2 $0 -22%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 23 $1 −$1 -69%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $6 +$1 +24%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 20 $1 +$1 +65%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 29 $6 −$3 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Mar 29 $23 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 29 $1 $0 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Mar 29 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Mar 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 29 $7 −$4 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 29 $6 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Mar 29 $3 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Mar 29 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Mar 29 $1 +$1 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Mar 29 $14 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Mar 29 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Mar 29 $6 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 92% −$20
sports 4% +$5
world 3% −$5
other 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 13¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET SELL Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -12.4% -20.8% 33% 20% -18.4%
≤30d 26 -17.2% -25.1% 42% 27% -16.0%
≤90d 159 -4.9% -13.9% 53% 38% -10.7%
all 159 -4.9% -13.9% 53% 38% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 38% -10.7%
10% -22.2% 22% -19.2%
15% -29.7% 16% -27.0%
20% -36.6% 10% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.36 · official $27.37 (match) · 596 history records