Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:58:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8af5…f106 crypto 89 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (50 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$60 (+4%) realized +$62 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%39W / 45L
Drawdown28%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day50.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$290
other 4% +$8
sports 4% −$11
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (50 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 84 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 43% +13.2%
≤30d 84 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 43% +13.2%
≤90d 84 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 43% +13.2%
all 84 +1.6% -8.1% 46% 43% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.1% 43% +13.2%
10% ← realistic here -16.9% 37% +2.4%
15% -24.9% 32% -7.5%
20% -32.3% 25% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$8 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$62
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 45
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)84 / 89
History coverage4d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day50.4
Drawdown28%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$47 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$63 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$31 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 20 $41 −$4 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$158 +216%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 20 $91 −$27 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 20 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 20 $52 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 20 $29 −$18 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 20 $32 +$34 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 20 $42 +$36 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$10 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 19 $18 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $42 +$31 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$10 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$27 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$16 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $21 +$29 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $5 +$2 +47%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 19 $45 +$7 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$36 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 18 $16 +$11 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$6 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 18 $31 +$7 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$8 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$10 -49%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$12 +227%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -95%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$2 +33%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $99 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $52 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $115 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $52 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $11 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $42 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $34 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $41 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $32 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $7 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 72¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $65 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $60 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.30 · official $2.31 (match) · 239 history records