Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8af7…34ae
other · 48 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$52 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$52 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 38
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage599d
Avg bet$336
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%
Chart Positions 2 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$0 (+0%)
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 05 $13 $0 +0%
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 28 $11 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $64 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 20 $66 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $66 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $6 +$10 +152%
Will Marco Rubio be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $57 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 06 $56 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 21 $53 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 21 $55 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $113 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $57 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 +$5 +83%
Blackhawks vs. Sharks Apr 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 $0 +2%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $50 $0 +1%
Santa Clara Broncos vs. Kentucky Wildcats Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 05 $94 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $91 +$3 +3%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 30 $13,526 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $20 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 04 $10 $0 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $11 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $213 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $407 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $158 −$1 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $452 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 85% −$13
politics 9% −$6
other 4% −$14
world 1% +$3
sports 1% −$23
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $12 1h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 17h
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 24h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $7 32h
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $7 37h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $12 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Team Liquid win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Solana reach $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $14 24d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $14 24d
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 44¢ $8 24d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $33 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 25d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $59 26d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $59 26d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $66 27d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $66 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 14 +3.6% -6.3% 14% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 32 -14.5% -22.7% 16% 6% -12.5%
all 46 -10.3% -18.8% 17% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 4% -9.8%
10% -26.6% 4% -18.4%
15% -33.7% 4% -26.3%
20% -40.2% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.00 · official $46.00 (match) · 222 history records