Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8A
0x8af9…9de6
crypto · 835 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$262 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$261 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$7
Realized−$261
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses510 / 321
Open positions4
Markets (closed)831 / 835
History coverage46d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day58.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 831 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days−$28
14 days−$58
30 days−$192
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Yes 46¢ 54¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 80¢ 50¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 12? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$3 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$2 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$3 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$3 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$3 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$260
weather 0% −$2
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
politics 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 -5.4% -14.4% 59% 39% -11.9%
≤30d 499 -4.5% -13.6% 63% 27% -13.1%
≤90d 831 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 30% -11.6%
all 831 -3.6% -12.8% 61% 30% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.8% 30% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -21.1% 16% -20.1%
15% -28.8% 9% -27.8%
20% -35.7% 5% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.15 · official $7.15 (match) · 3500 history records