Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:35:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8A 0x8afa…28f0 sports 2124 markets active 0h ago coverage 62d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 62d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,674 (+6%) realized +$3,518 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate51%1082W / 1035L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day39.4pace
Fees−$777est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2,484
7 days+$34
14 days+$3,665
30 days+$5,054
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$7,295
other 3% +$150
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 416 -40.5% -46.2% 31% 31% -9.3%
≤30d 973 +1.5% -8.1% 53% 53% +11.7%
≤90d 2117 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 51% -4.1%
all 2117 +0.0% -9.5% 51% 51% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 51% -4.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 50% -13.3%
15% -26.1% 47% -21.7%
20% -33.3% 43% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$21 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$731
Realized+$3,518
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses1082 / 1035
Est. fees paid−$777
Open positions9
Markets (closed)2117 / 2124
History coverage62d ⚠
Avg bet$27
Trades / day39.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 2117 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage 100 Thieves 54¢ 100¢ $126 $233 +$108 (+86%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $108 $106 −$1 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Under 38¢ 60¢ $60 $95 +$35 (+59%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Under 63¢ 92¢ $63 $92 +$29 (+47%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 58¢ $73 $73 +$1 (+1%)
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Ugo Humbert 53¢ 56¢ $51 $54 +$2 (+5%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 Over 61¢ 85¢ $33 $46 +$13 (+39%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 70¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+3%)
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage Cloud9 44¢ 0¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 491 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Sonic Boom vs. Mobis Phoebus Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Preston North End FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Dundee FC vs. Celtic FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Anadolu Efes vs. Olympiacos B.C. Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO3) - FERJEE In House Play Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Stars vs. Ducks Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Adelaide International, Qualification: Jaqueline Cristian vs Anastasia Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Luka Dončić: Points O/U 31.5 Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs. Milwaukee Panthers Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Beijing Royal Fighters Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5) Jun 18 $56 −$56 -100%
Charlotte 49ers vs. UAB Blazers: O/U 146.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Pedro Martinez vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs BIG (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Spread: NJIT Highlanders (-3.5) Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Mount St. Mary's Mountaineers vs. Siena Saints Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-01-18? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks: O/U 251.5 Jun 18 $35 −$35 -100%
US Lecce vs. US Cremonese: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Barcelona Open: Mariano Navone vs Andrey Rublev Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Pacers vs. Magic Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Clermont Foot 63 win on 2026-01-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions vs. Alabama State Hornets (W) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Northwestern Wildcats Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Guangzhou Loong Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Denver Pioneers vs. North Dakota Fighting Hawks: O/U 160.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: West Virginia Mountaineers (-3.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - DreamLeague Eastern Europe Cl Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Stars vs. Penguins Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5) Jun 18 $81 −$81 -100%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Hofstra Pride Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Keyd (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Penguins vs. Lightning: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 12.5 Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Suns vs. Nets Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-18.5) Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
AHL: Bakersfield Condors vs. Ontario Reign Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
Bruins vs. Lightning Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-01-28? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Duke Blue Devils (W) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Bucks Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - LFL Invitational Playoffs Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: North Carolina State Wolfpack (-8.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $30 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $29 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 38¢ $32 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 63¢ $48 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 62¢ $15 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $109 1m
Canada vs. Qatar: Canada O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $33 18m
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $73 18m
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Cloud9 (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 BUY Cloud9 44¢ $32 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 62¢ $27 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 52¢ $101 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $36 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $36 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $109 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $46 2h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 53¢ $52 2h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $12 2h
Valencia vs. Barcelona BUY Barcelona 53¢ $54 3h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 42¢ $39 3h
Reyer Venezia vs. Olimpia Milano BUY Olimpia Milano 57¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 43¢ $34 3h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 43¢ $30 4h
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 BUY Under 53¢ $52 4h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Estar Backs (BO3) - The International South Am BUY Estar Backs 78¢ $17 4h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 53¢ $68 4h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 42¢ $31 5h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Infinite 79¢ $15 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 45¢ $36 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 54¢ $85 6h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $27 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $730.87 · official $743.90 · 3500 history records