Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:00:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8A 0x8afc…0515 crypto 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Covers last 90d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5,290 (-12%) realized −$5,290 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate73%19W / 7L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,682per market
Trades / day38.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 91d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2,883
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 16 -8.4% -17.1% 62% 0% -16.7%
all 26 +14.7% +3.8% 73% 4% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.8% 4% -15.3%
10% -6.1% 4% -23.4%
15% ← realistic here -15.2% 4% -30.8%
20% -23.5% 4% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$2,819) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +41% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
127.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$700 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$5,290
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses19 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage91d ⚠
Avg bet$1,682
Trades / day38.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Mar 26 $1,019 −$132 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Mar 26 $532 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Mar 26 $4,290 −$771 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Mar 26 $215 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Mar 26 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 21 $5,232 −$2,410 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Mar 21 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Mar 21 $3,536 +$341 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Mar 21 $1,177 +$66 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Mar 21 $2,824 +$9 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Mar 21 $305 +$12 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 21 $2,819 −$105 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 21 $7,103 +$374 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 21 $750 +$79 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 21 $1,114 +$58 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 21 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 20 $1,658 −$1,481 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Mar 20 $1,397 +$42 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Mar 20 $4,409 +$118 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Mar 20 $2,198 +$59 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Mar 20 $1,028 +$53 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Mar 20 $1,119 +$19 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 20 $1,081 +$29 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 20 $1,371 +$24 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Mar 20 $123 +$720 +585%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $728 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $159 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $427 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $8 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $25 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $19 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $14 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $35 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $15 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $17 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $6 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $3 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $0 84d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $7 84d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.52 · official $49.52 (match) · 3500 history records