Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:24:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8A 0x8afe…b18b crypto 85 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate66%54W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day68.6pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$51
other 4% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -6.1% -15.0% 66% 50% -16.2%
≤30d 82 -6.1% -15.0% 66% 50% -16.2%
≤90d 82 -6.1% -15.0% 66% 50% -16.2%
all 82 -6.1% -15.0% 66% 50% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 50% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 33% -24.2%
15% -30.6% 21% -31.6%
20% -37.4% 15% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -19% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses54 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage2d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day68.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 41¢ 52¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+28%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 21 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 $0 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$12 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 21 $8 −$3 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 20 $6 $0 -3%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 20 $8 −$3 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 20 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$6 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 20 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$10 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 20 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$21 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 20 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 91¢ $5 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $31 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $9 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 25¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 20h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 21h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 21h
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 21h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.34 · official $22.34 (match) · 215 history records