Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b01…24a9
politics · 49 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$398 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$409 · open −$23
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample⚠ Wins small, loses big
Net worth$1,635
Realized+$409
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses16 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$261
Open positions23
Markets (closed)26 / 49
History coverage4d
Avg bet$1,497
Trades / day832.3
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 23 History 26 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$177
7 days+$409
14 days+$409
30 days+$409
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 90¢ 78¢ $179 $156 −$23 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 84¢ $150 $150 +$0 (+0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 95¢ 95¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 80¢ 80¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 83¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 97¢ 97¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 85¢ 85¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 77¢ 77¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+0%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 86¢ 87¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,500 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,246 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Jun 14 $1,094 −$19 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $3,300 −$3 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $750 $0 +0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $65 +$10 +15%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 14 $2,839 −$5 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $1,027 $0 +0%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 14 $450 +$33 +7%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $450 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 14 $971 +$101 +10%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $250 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 14 $1,200 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $300 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10,234 −$2 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $10,503 −$9 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$2 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $33 +$2 +6%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $627 +$73 +12%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $500 −$3 -1%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $1,821 +$97 +5%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 11 $240 −$1 -0%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $200 +$44 +22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 11 $397 +$46 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 11 $559 +$46 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 32% +$172
sports 29% $0
politics 14% +$70
tech 13% +$86
crypto 10% −$19
economics 1% +$101
finance 1% $0
world 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $5 1m
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 99¢ $89 3m
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2 4m
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $100 5m
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $100 7m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $50 8m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $6 9m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $37 11m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $27 11m
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $30 13m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $53 13m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 14m
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? SELL No 98¢ $50 15m
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? SELL No 96¢ $9 17m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 18m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 18m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $25 20m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 88¢ $100 20m
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $100 20m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $29 21m
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1 24m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $50 26m
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 28m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 77¢ $9 30m
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 85¢ $15 36m
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 38m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $10 39m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $5 39m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports $1 39m
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $46 42m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-6.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 15% -8.6%
≤30d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 15% -8.6%
≤90d 26 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 15% -8.6%
all 26 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 15% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover832.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.9% 15% -8.6%
10% -15.8% 0% -17.4%
15% ← realistic here -24.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -31.4% 0% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,634.61 · official $1,634.61 (match) · 3500 history records