Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:13:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8B 0x8b02…f3d9 sports 548 markets active 4h ago coverage 595d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$13,780 (+8%) realized +$13,775 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%273W / 266L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$317per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$394est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$214
7 days−$46,902
14 days−$41,451
30 days−$41,551
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$253
other 7% +$5,608
politics 6% +$7,892
finance 1% +$103
crypto 0% +$72
world 0% −$444
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 191 -73.3% -75.8% 12% 12% -79.5%
≤30d 227 -47.2% -52.2% 22% 22% -65.6%
≤90d 280 -18.2% -26.0% 33% 33% -50.1%
all 539 +17.1% +5.9% 51% 49% -2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +5.9% 49% -2.6%
10% -4.2% 48% -12.0%
15% -13.5% 47% -20.5%
20% -22.0% 46% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +55% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$329 vs −$287 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

595d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized+$13,775
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses273 / 266
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$394
Open positions6
Markets (closed)539 / 548
History coverage595d
Avg bet$317
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 539 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $205 $237 +$32 (+15%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 28¢ 30¢ $64 $70 +$6 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Will Kylian Mbappé record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $6 $6 −$1 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 63 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $305 +$347 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $304 +$222 +73%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $204 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$95 +93%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$200 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $304 +$262 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$68 +67%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 19 $428 +$340 +79%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $109 −$107 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $305 −$300 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $406 −$400 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$65 +65%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $406 −$400 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $203 +$273 +134%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $309 −$54 -18%
Patriots vs. Broncos: O/U 34.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans: O/U 150.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Lions vs. Chiefs: O/U 51.5 Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Bills vs. Jaguars: O/U 51.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Rams vs. Seahawks: O/U 47.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Houston Cougars (-3.5) Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Spread: Rockets (-2.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
O/U 48.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5) Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs: O/U 220.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-9.5) Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Rams vs. Titans Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Rockets vs. Pistons: O/U 218.5 Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 134.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Spread: 49ers (-2.5) Jun 17 $64 −$64 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-2.5) Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Jaguars vs. Broncos Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Illinois Fighting Illini (-3.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Purdue Boilermakers (-6.5) Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 142.5 Jun 17 $100 −$100 -100%
DAL vs. CHI: O/U 51.5 Jun 17 $88 −$88 -100%
Canada vs. USA Jun 17 $94 −$94 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 52¢ $203 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 60¢ $20 15h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $304 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $305 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-2 BUY 28¢ $26 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY 37¢ $20 15h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $204 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 36h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $203 36h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 38h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 53¢ $304 38h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 5.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $428 46h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 32¢ $109 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $305 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 53¢ $406 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $203 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $51 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY 38¢ $102 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $203 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $255 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $203 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $309 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $270 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 30¢ $104 4d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.06 · official $489.06 (match) · 2395 history records