Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T08:58:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b02…b95f sports 664 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$9,055 (+3%) realized +$8,559 · open +$496
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate64%394W / 217L
Whale WR66%big bets
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day21.9pace
Fees−$717est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$13,368now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$191
14 days+$259
30 days+$334
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$8,044
finance 3% +$314
tech 2% +$460
other 1% −$7
world 1% +$100
crypto 0% +$79
politics 0% −$58
economics 0% −$107
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +7.7% -2.6% 66% 46% -6.1%
≤30d 104 +3.0% -6.8% 71% 37% -8.1%
≤90d 422 +2.2% -7.5% 64% 27% -8.4%
all 611 +1.8% -7.9% 64% 30% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.9% 30% -7.1%
10% -16.7% 12% -16.0%
15% ← realistic here -24.8% 5% -24.1%
20% -32.2% 4% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 66% (≥$530) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$76 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$13,368
Realized+$8,559
Unrealized+$496
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses394 / 217
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$717
Open positions52
Markets (closed)611 / 664
History coverage137d ⚠
Avg bet$491
Trades / day21.9
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 52 History 611 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 99¢ $4,108 $4,303 +$196 (+5%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 98¢ 100¢ $983 $998 +$14 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 97¢ 100¢ $974 $996 +$22 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $682 $694 +$12 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 87¢ 96¢ $488 $537 +$49 (+10%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 94¢ 100¢ $470 $498 +$28 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 70¢ 71¢ $392 $400 +$8 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 97¢ 99¢ $389 $398 +$9 (+2%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $344 $346 +$2 (+1%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $288 $298 +$10 (+3%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 97¢ $279 $292 +$13 (+5%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 87¢ 91¢ $279 $292 +$13 (+5%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $270 $274 +$4 (+2%)
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? Yes 82¢ 82¢ $256 $256 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? No 96¢ 96¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-0%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 92¢ 92¢ $184 $185 +$1 (+1%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $172 $181 +$9 (+5%)
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? No 84¢ 86¢ $168 $171 +$3 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 78¢ 76¢ $156 $153 −$3 (-2%)
Will FEARX win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 98¢ 98¢ $146 $146 +$0 (+0%)
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,700 (HIGH) in June? No 67¢ 86¢ $87 $112 +$25 (+28%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 97¢ $94 $99 +$6 (+6%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $96 $99 +$3 (+3%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 88¢ 97¢ $88 $97 +$9 (+10%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? Jun 21 $4 +$5 +128%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $84 +$16 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $84 −$8 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $53 −$27 -50%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 20 $44 −$39 -89%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $81 +$19 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 20 $292 +$8 +3%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 19 $148 +$41 +27%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $385 −$46 -12%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $195 +$52 +26%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $168 +$12 +7%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 18 $122 +$17 +14%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $335 −$29 -9%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $90 +$10 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 18 $134 +$66 +49%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $138 +$22 +16%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $80 +$20 +25%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $365 +$3 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$16 +158%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $68 +$32 +48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $78 −$2 -3%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $83 −$4 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $157 +$43 +27%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $33 +$17 +52%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 15 $251 +$10 +4%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15? Jun 15 $80 +$1 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $452 −$49 -11%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $88 +$10 +12%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - Asia Mas Jun 15 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $282 +$5 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $190 +$10 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $157 −$7 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $222 −$23 -10%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $178 +$22 +12%
Will De'Aaron Fox score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Victor Wembanyama score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Fi Jun 14 $36 +$4 +10%
Will Devin Vassell score 50+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals Jun 14 $248 +$2 +1%
Will OG Anunoby score 40+ points in any game of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $18 $0 +1%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $571 +$29 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 +$17 +20%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $95 +$5 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $39 +$1 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $530 −$107 -20%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $172 +$22 +13%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $396 +$4 +1%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $87 −$10 -12%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $116 +$30 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 70¢ $71 1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $87 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 96¢ $193 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $395 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 23, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $9 1h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $70 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $14 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $14 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $81 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $11 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 71¢ $93 1h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Milwaukee Bucks in 2026-27? SELL No 94¢ $9 7h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? BUY No 29¢ $29 7h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $60 21h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $20 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $15 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $54 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 22h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $15 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $60 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $26 23h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $104 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $0 23h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 86¢ $344 43h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 5¢ $5 43h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster Challengers 95¢ $48 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13,367.66 · official $13,368.01 (match) · 3500 history records