Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:01:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8B 0x8b02…5da7 politics 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$557per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$4
other 28% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 9 -2.4% -11.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 14 +8.0% -2.3% 7% 7% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 7% -9.6%
10% -11.7% 7% -18.2%
15% -20.2% 7% -26.1%
20% -28.0% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$2 · ×9.47 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage133d
Avg bet$557
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $62 $62 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $180 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $199 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1 $0 -19%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $189 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $199 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $208 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $213 −$2 -1%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 25 $11 +$14 +134%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,360 −$5 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $1,308 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 24 $1,719 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27m
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 6h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 12h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 13h
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 15h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $198 16h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 17h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 24h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 25h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 26h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 28h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $208 28h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $208 30h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 31h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 33h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 42h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 46h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $179 2d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $125 3d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $28 69d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $3 77d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $2,084 113d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 118d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 2¢ $1 118d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2,357 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.99 · official $61.99 (match) · 176 history records