Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b03…30bf crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$42 (-13%) realized −$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%9W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -30.0%
≤30d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -30.0%
≤90d 18 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -30.0%
all 18 +0.5% -9.1% 50% 50% -30.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 50% -30.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 44% -36.7%
15% -25.7% 33% -42.8%
20% -33.0% 22% -48.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$13 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses9 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 26 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 26 $53 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$7 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 26 $28 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$20 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 26 $27 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $26 +$12 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records