Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:47:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b04…8842 sports 73 markets active 6d ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$7 (-4%) realized +$0 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$14
14 days−$28
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$19
other 23% +$5
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 38 -33.8% -40.1% 29% 26% -31.1%
≤90d 70 -13.2% -21.5% 33% 30% -14.3%
all 70 -13.2% -21.5% 33% 30% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 30% -14.3%
10% -29.0% 30% -22.5%
15% -35.9% 29% -30.0%
20% -42.2% 26% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$0
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 47
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)70 / 73
History coverage55d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+31%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 8¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? No 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) Jun 04 $2 +$4 +171%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $2 +$2 +82%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $4 +$2 +53%
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) Jun 04 $1 +$1 +113%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gaimin Gladiators vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) Jun 03 $6 $0 +7%
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) Jun 03 $1 +$2 +205%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 03 $4 −$1 -15%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $3 +$2 +78%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Jun 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 +$3 +96%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $3 +$2 +75%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Ma May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 24 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Team Falcons win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 24 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Legacy win CS Asia Championships 2026? May 24 $2 +$5 +244%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $7 +$12 +170%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B May 21 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs TYLOO (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group A May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? May 18 $3 +$20 +650%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ukraine be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Romania be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -44%
Will Ukraine win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Will Finland be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 16 $1 $0 -23%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $2 +$7 +307%
Will 9z win PGL Astana 2026? May 15 $8 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY Monte 36¢ $3 6d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY B8 27¢ $2 6d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 6d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY B8 57¢ $4 10d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 35¢ $2 10d
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) BUY Liquid 35¢ $3 12d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 13¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 32¢ $1 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL Sharks 10¢ $0 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Sharks 44¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 17¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 36¢ $1 13d
Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs Lynn Vision (+1.5) BUY MIBR 36¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Heroic (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY Heroic 53¢ $2 13d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY GamerLegion 54¢ $2 13d
Map Handicap: FLY (-1.5) vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (+1.5) BUY FlyQuest 46¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 62¢ $2 13d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) SELL B8 52¢ $3 13d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) BUY B8 34¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner SELL B8 34¢ $3 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 38¢ $4 13d
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY M80 10¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 6¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 11¢ $1 13d
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY GamerLegion 23¢ $2 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 25¢ $2 14d
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs M80 (+1.5) SELL B8 32¢ $4 14d
Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs Sinners (+1.5) BUY TYLOO 32¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.41 · official $4.41 (match) · 176 history records