Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:28:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b0e…3a6e crypto 553 markets active 0h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$483 (-9%) realized −$479 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate64%341W / 196L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$7
14 days−$21
30 days−$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$498
crypto 16% −$112
other 11% +$42
world 7% +$16
weather 2% −$18
politics 1% +$6
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -19.0% -26.7% 46% 33% -7.7%
≤30d 339 -9.1% -17.8% 54% 39% -35.8%
≤90d 537 -4.0% -13.1% 64% 36% -18.6%
all 537 -4.0% -13.1% 64% 36% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 36% -18.6%
10% -21.4% 22% -26.4%
15% -29.0% 15% -33.5%
20% -36.0% 11% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$6 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$479
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses341 / 196
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions16
Markets (closed)537 / 553
History coverage84d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 537 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 70¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 73¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $0 $2 +$1 (+225%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 17? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? No 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 17? No 73¢ 64¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 19¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-37%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 16? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 16? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? No 72¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $3 −$1 -22%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $1 $0 -36%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm Jun 16 $1 $0 -32%
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch Jun 16 $1 $0 +47%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $2 +$1 +34%
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova Jun 16 $1 $0 +24%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +30%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? Jun 16 $0 $0 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 15? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 $0 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$12 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $7 −$1 -7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $4 $0 +9%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +10%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 12 $10 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -60%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -86%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic SELL Miomir Kecmanovic 42¢ $1 8m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 38¢ $1 8m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 86¢ $1 9m
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch SELL Grigor Dimitrov 98¢ $1 9m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez SELL Zeynep Sonmez 99¢ $3 9m
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 1¢ $0 50m
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 61¢ $1 52m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 68¢ $1 52m
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 54¢ $1 52m
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic BUY Miomir Kecmanovic 63¢ $1 53m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 59m
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 80¢ $1 1h
Dublin: Grigor Dimitrov vs Chris Rodesch BUY Grigor Dimitrov 66¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino SELL Adrian Mannarino 99¢ $2 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Adrian Mannarino 84¢ $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Mackenzie McDonald vs Shintaro Mochizuki BUY Shintaro Mochizuki 86¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 53¢ $1 1h
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino BUY Jakub Mensik 60¢ $1 1h
Grass Court Championships: Katerina Siniakova vs Rebeka Masarova BUY Katerina Siniakova 80¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 85¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $4 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz SELL Hubert Hurkacz 94¢ $1 1h
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz BUY Hubert Hurkacz 82¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C or below on June 17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 16? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June SELL Yes 15¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 16? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.79 · official $27.81 (match) · 1735 history records