Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b0e…bd73
sports · 13 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$613 -20%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$292 · open −$320
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$881
Realized−$292
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage8d
Avg bet$241
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 4 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$260
7 days−$313
14 days−$292
30 days−$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jiri Lehecka 61¢ 60¢ $511 $507 −$4 (-1%)
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova Iva Jovic 57¢ 33¢ $413 $238 −$175 (-42%)
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 52¢ 51¢ $139 $136 −$3 (-2%)
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Qualifier Playoffs Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $138 $0 −$138 (-100%)
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Team Heretics Academy 55¢ $250 $0 −$250 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 13 $281 −$10 -3%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $253 −$250 -99%
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski Jun 10 $252 +$61 +24%
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi Jun 08 $255 +$40 +16%
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 08 $250 −$250 -100%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris Jun 08 $116 −$4 -3%
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu Jun 08 $242 +$106 +44%
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch Jun 07 $196 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St Jun 06 $40 +$21 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$612
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tucuman: Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi vs Johan Alexander Rodriguez BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 52¢ $141 46m
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 61¢ $517 1h
Nottingham Open: Iva Jovic vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Iva Jovic 57¢ $418 1h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $2 11h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL Vivo Keyd Stars 23¢ $34 11h
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 24¢ $176 11h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Caty McNally vs Mika Stojsavljevic BUY Caty McNally 51¢ $281 12h
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P BUY Team Heretics Academy 55¢ $253 12h
LoL: E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS vs The Otter Side (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swi BUY E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS 86¢ $255 5d
Counter-Strike: The Last Resort vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qu BUY GenOne 69¢ $242 5d
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Lloyd Harris BUY Lloyd Harris 51¢ $116 5d
Bratislava: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Alexander Donski BUY Joao Lucas Da Silva 80¢ $252 5d
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs STEP (BO3) - United21 Playoffs BUY ex-MANA eSports 50¢ $250 5d
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 51¢ $132 6d
Lyon: Pol Martin Tiffon vs Dali Blanch BUY Pol Martin Tiffon 51¢ $64 6d
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs ASTRAL (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Group St BUY ARCRED 65¢ $40 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -15.8% -23.8% 38% 38% -24.9%
≤30d 9 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 44% -23.5%
≤90d 9 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 44% -23.5%
all 9 -8.2% -17.0% 44% 44% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.0% 44% -23.5%
10% -24.9% 33% -30.9%
15% -32.2% 22% -37.5%
20% -38.8% 11% -43.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $880.95 · official $880.95 (match) · 25 history records