Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:16:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8B 0x8b13…19ff crypto 857 markets active 1h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,309 (-6%) realized −$2,296 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate59%504W / 350L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day11.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1,437now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$261
14 days−$1,242
30 days−$1,242
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,453
other 8% −$1,205
sports 3% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -19.5% -27.1% 25% 25% -23.6%
≤30d 9 -28.4% -35.2% 22% 22% -51.8%
≤90d 420 -6.7% -15.6% 54% 49% -22.3%
all 854 -4.3% -13.4% 59% 54% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 54% -16.1%
10% -21.7% 51% -24.1%
15% -29.3% 48% -31.5%
20% -36.2% 26% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$26 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$1,437
Realized−$2,296
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses504 / 350
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions2
Markets (closed)854 / 857
History coverage196d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 854 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $1,260 $1,251 −$9 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Brazil 73¢ 72¢ $189 $185 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,004 −$20 -2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $26 −$26 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $303 −$300 -99%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $15 +$50 +325%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $302 +$64 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $988 −$981 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? May 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? May 17 $264 −$27 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? May 17 $99 −$12 -12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? May 17 $304 −$31 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17? May 17 $323 +$18 +5%
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? May 17 $20 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 17? May 16 $262 +$21 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 16 $97 −$31 -32%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 15? May 16 $12 −$7 -55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15? May 16 $34 −$4 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 14? May 16 $137 −$66 -48%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $19 +$11 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15? May 15 $104 −$22 -21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15? May 15 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 15? May 15 $16 +$9 +57%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 14? May 14 $110 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 14? May 14 $153 +$44 +29%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $154 −$11 -7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 13? May 13 $150 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 13? May 13 $81 −$4 -5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $117 −$2 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 13? May 12 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 12? May 11 $113 −$12 -11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 12? May 11 $377 −$29 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 12? May 11 $208 −$5 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 12? May 11 $327 −$15 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 11 $469 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 11? May 11 $111 −$43 -39%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 10? May 11 $134 −$44 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $73 −$27 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $28 +$5 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 11? May 11 $99 +$29 +30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 11? May 11 $124 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 11? May 11 $54 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 11? May 10 $185 −$4 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 10? May 10 $157 +$10 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 10? May 10 $284 +$7 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 8? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 8? May 09 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 73¢ $191 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,270 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance SELL Germany 85¢ $984 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance BUY Germany 86¢ $1,004 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 33¢ $26 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 31¢ $102 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 23¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Austria? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 6d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $302 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $988 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 19? BUY No 17¢ $5 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? SELL No 44¢ $87 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 48¢ $23 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 48¢ $5 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 48¢ $18 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 48¢ $48 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18? BUY No 48¢ $5 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? SELL Yes 40¢ $54 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $42 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $44 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $49 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $35 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 43d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 17? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,436.62 · official $1,436.62 (match) · 3154 history records