Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:22:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8B 0x8b14…5924 crypto 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 222d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate74%23W / 8L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 45% −$7
sports 31% −$4
tech 9% −$1
politics 7% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 14 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 31 +0.2% -9.4% 74% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

222d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses23 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage222d
Avg bet$406
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $160 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 21? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 30? Jun 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 30? Jun 20 $25 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 20 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 20? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in April? May 29 $56 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? May 29 $61 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 20 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $160 in March? Apr 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on March 31? Apr 20 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 9? Mar 30 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 30 $34 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 09 $62 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? Mar 09 $73 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? Feb 07 $149 $0 +0%
US national XRP reserve in 2025? Jan 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? Jan 09 $147 $0 +0%
North Florida Ospreys vs. Tennessee Volunteers Dec 27 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Dec 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? Dec 27 $145 $0 +0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $106 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 12 $4,346 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 12 $898 −$1 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Novemb Nov 12 $1,326 −$1 -0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $2,226 −$2 -0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 12 $2,228 −$2 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $699 −$1 -0%
Will Burnley win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 11 $1,533 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $71 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will the price of Solana be above $30 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 2h
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $2 2h
Will BNB reach $1,100 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? BUY No 100¢ $44 22d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 22d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $25 22d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 22d
Will Solana reach $160 in April? BUY No 99¢ $56 61d
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 61d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $61 61d
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.90 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $50 82d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $33 102d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 102d
Will Solana reach $160 in March? BUY No 100¢ $36 102d
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $34 102d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 102d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 132d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $62 132d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $13 132d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $149 161d
Will Solana reach $580 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $147 174d
US national XRP reserve in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 174d
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 12, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 219d
North Florida Ospreys vs. Tennessee Volunteers BUY Tennessee Volunteers 100¢ $1 219d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $145 219d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $105 219d
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 SELL No 100¢ $2,114 219d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $149.56 · official $149.56 (match) · 70 history records