Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:56:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8B 0x8b16…961f other 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 426d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,932 (+15%) realized +$6,766 · open +$2,166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%29W / 37L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$714per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$10,820now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$706
14 days+$706
30 days+$3,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$563
other 25% +$1,524
politics 22% +$3,952
crypto 12% +$1,157
sports 5% +$2,001
tech 3% +$653
culture 0% −$181
finance 0% +$132
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +80.7% +63.5% 50% 50% +89.6%
≤30d 7 +54.6% +39.8% 57% 57% +61.5%
≤90d 51 +11.9% +1.3% 55% 51% +5.5%
all 66 -2.6% -11.8% 44% 41% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 41% +3.2%
10% -20.3% 32% -6.7%
15% -28.0% 27% -15.7%
20% -35.0% 23% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$1,018) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$562 vs −$265 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.66 per $1 lost it wins $1.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

426d coverage
Net worth$10,820
Realized+$6,766
Unrealized+$2,166
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses29 / 37
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions16
Markets (closed)66 / 82
History coverage426d
Avg bet$714
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 61¢ 99¢ $1,220 $1,987 +$767 (+63%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 46¢ 56¢ $1,379 $1,694 +$315 (+23%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 60¢ 99¢ $1,000 $1,663 +$663 (+66%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $921 $1,086 +$165 (+18%)
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $973 $1,076 +$103 (+11%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $923 $762 −$161 (-17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $601 $690 +$89 (+15%)
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 65¢ 66¢ $652 $665 +$13 (+2%)
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technocrat? No 35¢ 72¢ $197 $410 +$213 (+108%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 18¢ $260 $370 +$110 (+42%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 31¢ 99¢ $93 $298 +$205 (+220%)
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian government? No 25¢ 48¢ $52 $99 +$47 (+92%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 48¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? No 17¢ 0¢ $255 $2 −$253 (-99%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 5-10%? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-98%)
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 10-15%? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 18 $417 +$746 +179%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $228 −$40 -18%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 08 $729 +$1,414 +194%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $280 −$229 -82%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $2,494 +$1,471 +59%
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? May 25 $54 +$27 +50%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 2nd in the 1st round of the 2026 C May 25 $117 $0 -0%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $1,024 −$1,005 -98%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 17 $1,520 −$529 -35%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 16 $718 −$700 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 13 $839 +$154 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET May 13 $505 +$71 +14%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 13 $338 −$238 -70%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 12 $1,752 −$159 -9%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 12 $303 −$294 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $506 +$306 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 10 $1,284 +$808 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 09 $1,024 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 09 $412 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 09 $510 +$189 +37%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1,122 +$280 +25%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 08 $1,018 −$75 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 07 $518 +$513 +99%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $1,018 +$1,289 +127%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 04 $1,000 −$393 -39%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $511 +$529 +104%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 29 $3,243 −$1,293 -40%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,106 +$226 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Apr 28 $519 −$519 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Apr 28 $1,035 +$902 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Apr 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Apr 28 $370 +$630 +170%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $1,800 +$653 +36%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 25 $780 −$531 -68%
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings? Apr 22 $68 +$132 +194%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Apr 22 $2,122 +$141 +7%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $860 +$66 +8%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Apr 22 $181 −$181 -100%
Will Rory McIlroy win The 2025 PGA Championship? Apr 22 $425 −$425 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $255 −$22 -9%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 24, 2026? Apr 22 $1,050 +$225 +21%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026? Apr 21 $593 +$494 +83%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Apr 20 $1,143 +$353 +31%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026? Apr 20 $2,995 +$861 +29%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 19 $1,452 +$184 +13%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 15 $183 −$60 -33%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026? Apr 15 $200 −$20 -10%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $370 +$344 +93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $999 +$144 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $5 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $196 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $9 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $9 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $65 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $20 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 65¢ $294 1h
Will Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 64¢ $51 1h
Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $50 3d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 14¢ $244 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 12¢ $57 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 50¢ $188 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $228 4d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $96 4d
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $263 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $199 4d
Will Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 4d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 50¢ $300 7d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 50¢ $204 7d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $162 9d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $248 9d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $261 9d
Will Lamine Yamal win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 37¢ $0 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10,819.74 · official $10,818.57 (match) · 714 history records