Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:23:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b18…de94 crypto 171 markets active 2h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$406 (-12%) realized −$406 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate65%111W / 59L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$224
7 days−$39
14 days+$155
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$761
crypto 38% −$129
sports 19% +$528
politics 3% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -29.4% -36.1% 25% 25% -12.7%
≤30d 15 -6.0% -15.0% 40% 40% +1.3%
≤90d 15 -6.0% -15.0% 40% 40% +1.3%
all 170 -3.7% -12.9% 65% 28% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 28% -21.8%
10% -21.2% 19% -29.3%
15% -28.9% 16% -36.1%
20% -35.8% 16% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -33% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$406
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses111 / 59
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)170 / 171
History coverage185d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 170 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$78 +153%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $242 −$149 -62%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $61 −$60 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win o Jun 19 $26 −$23 -89%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$88 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $218 −$118 -54%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $177 +$351 +199%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $82 +$166 +203%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $86 +$15 +18%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
StandX FDV above $200M one day after launch? Feb 28 $50 −$23 -46%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Feb 27 $10 $0 -4%
Will Opinion launch a token on March 4? Feb 27 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 27 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 26 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 26 $3 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$6 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Feb 26 $105 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Feb 26 $7 −$5 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Feb 26 $7 −$4 -61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 1h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $2 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $1 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $4 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $5 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $44 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 80¢ $71 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 24¢ $92 2h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $40 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 7h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 8h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win o SELL 2¢ $3 28h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 30h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? AND Will Morocco win o BUY 15¢ $26 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $172 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 8¢ $34 5d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 34¢ $100 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $218 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 88¢ $528 6d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $118 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.37 · official $50.37 (match) · 415 history records