Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1d…1a19 other 19 markets active 9h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13,552 (-54%) realized −$13,611 · open +$59
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -58% what you keep after slip
Net edge-58%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,331per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit16%portable
Net worth$8,373now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,052
7 days−$13,648
14 days−$13,648
30 days−$13,648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% −$11,583
sports 8% −$2,007
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-54.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -50.0% -54.7% 25% 25% -84.3%
≤30d 12 -50.0% -54.7% 25% 25% -84.3%
≤90d 12 -50.0% -54.7% 25% 25% -84.3%
all 12 -50.0% -54.7% 25% 25% -84.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -54.7% 25% -84.3%
10% -59.1% 25% -85.8%
15% -63.0% 17% -87.2%
20% -66.6% 17% -88.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -83% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -45% → late -55% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$1,602 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$8,373
Realized−$13,611
Unrealized+$59
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions7
Markets (closed)12 / 19
History coverage12d
Avg bet$1,331
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2,000 $2,765 +$765 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,999 $2,333 +$334 (+17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $2,000 $2,120 +$120 (+6%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1,764 $611 −$1,154 (-65%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $250 $252 +$2 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $87 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,989 −$1,948 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,961 −$1,917 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $81 −$80 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $74 +$125 +170%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $212 −$210 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $199 −$195 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $106 −$104 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10,064 −$9,942 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $215 +$229 +106%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,809 +$416 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $52 8h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1,221 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $19 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $194 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $77 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $14 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $9 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 10h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $406 11h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1,961 11h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 14h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,372.79 · official $8,372.79 (match) · 62 history records