Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:58:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8B 0x8b1f…cd31 world 56 markets active 0h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%16W / 39L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$278per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$26
14 days−$33
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$25
other 34% −$20
politics 12% +$2
finance 6% +$38
sports 1% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -1.9% -11.2% 18% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 38 -0.3% -9.8% 26% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 50 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 2% -9.5%
all 55 -2.0% -11.4% 29% 2% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 2% -9.5%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$4 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses16 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage105d
Avg bet$278
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $158 −$3 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $363 −$5 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $174 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $11 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $162 −$4 -2%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $104 −$13 -12%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $174 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $173 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $399 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $162 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $173 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $191 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $68 −$3 -5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $174 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $363 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $180 −$6 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 10 $203 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $185 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $51 +$1 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $45 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $203 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $59 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 06 $361 +$8 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $424 +$7 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $374 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $181 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $345 +$19 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $524 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $123 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $205 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $131 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $219 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $6 $0 +7%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $156 −$3 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 26 $177 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $348 +$2 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $14 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 26 $544 +$4 +1%
Will Jordan Spieth win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 23 $264 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $216 +$38 +18%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $846 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $985 −$43 -4%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $1,083 $0 +0%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 15 $701 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $179 +$4 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $188 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $75 3m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 89¢ $80 3m
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $53 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 91¢ $106 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $174 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $174 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $174 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $174 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 26h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 31h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 35h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $83 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $75 40h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $156 44h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $6 44h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $24 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $8 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $30 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 45h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $104 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $37 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $124 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 67¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 67¢ $174 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $88 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $85 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.00 (match) · 297 history records