Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:21:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8B
0x8b22…fe8c
weather · 96 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$49 -17%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$49 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses27 / 69
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage50d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 0 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$18
14 days−$18
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? No 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? No 66¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? No 92¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? No 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? No 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? No 45¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 10 $1 +$7 +697%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $3 −$2 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 13? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 24? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 10? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 16? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 23? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on May 31? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 6? Jun 06 $1 +$3 +270%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $1 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $1 $0 +8%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on May 17? May 17 $1 $0 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on May 17? May 17 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on May 11? May 11 $2 −$2 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on May 11? May 11 $4 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 11? May 11 $4 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on May 11? May 11 $4 +$1 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 10? May 10 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on May 10? May 10 $4 $0 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on May 9? May 09 $2 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May May 09 $2 $0 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on May 9? May 09 $4 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$48
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 57¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 43¢ $0 31m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL No 87¢ $0 36m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? SELL No 81¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $1 41m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? SELL No 45¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 86¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 72¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 46¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? SELL No 44¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? BUY No 48¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 47¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 92¢ $1 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $1 46h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 10? BUY No 89¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? BUY No 79¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? BUY No 29¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 10? BUY No 66¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 10? BUY No 82¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 10? BUY No 45¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? BUY No 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? SELL No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 9? BUY No 12¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 8? SELL No 98¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 8? SELL No 100¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -17.7% -25.6% 26% 21% -43.4%
≤30d 41 -16.7% -24.7% 34% 24% -40.6%
≤90d 96 -25.2% -32.4% 28% 21% -25.0%
all 96 -25.2% -32.4% 28% 21% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 21% -25.0%
10% -38.8% 10% -32.2%
15% -44.7% 9% -38.7%
20% -50.2% 5% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 261 history records